Fred Katz

We talk about the three ball as a high variance way to win all the time. And I think sometimes we don't talk about it enough in the other direction too, which is what you're getting at right now, right? Like we look at NCAA tournament upsets and every time an 11 seed beats a three seed and goes to the final four or whatever.

We talk about the three ball as a high variance way to win all the time. And I think sometimes we don't talk about it enough in the other direction too, which is what you're getting at right now, right? Like we look at NCAA tournament upsets and every time an 11 seed beats a three seed and goes to the final four or whatever.

We talk about the three ball as a high variance way to win all the time. And I think sometimes we don't talk about it enough in the other direction too, which is what you're getting at right now, right? Like we look at NCAA tournament upsets and every time an 11 seed beats a three seed and goes to the final four or whatever.

So often it's because some random dude who you've never heard of hit nine threes and that swung the game. And we talk about it so much. I've received so many texts from friends and people who don't work in basketball. Why are all these comebacks happening in the NBA now? And so much of that is because, well, the three ball changes things. And you think about that is like a team can get hot.

So often it's because some random dude who you've never heard of hit nine threes and that swung the game. And we talk about it so much. I've received so many texts from friends and people who don't work in basketball. Why are all these comebacks happening in the NBA now? And so much of that is because, well, the three ball changes things. And you think about that is like a team can get hot.

So often it's because some random dude who you've never heard of hit nine threes and that swung the game. And we talk about it so much. I've received so many texts from friends and people who don't work in basketball. Why are all these comebacks happening in the NBA now? And so much of that is because, well, the three ball changes things. And you think about that is like a team can get hot.

They hit three threes on three straight possessions. And all of a sudden, the 12 point game is a three point game. And you're right back in it. The double digit lead isn't what it used to be. The opposite is true, too. Because the variance goes in the other direction. And I totally agree with you.

They hit three threes on three straight possessions. And all of a sudden, the 12 point game is a three point game. And you're right back in it. The double digit lead isn't what it used to be. The opposite is true, too. Because the variance goes in the other direction. And I totally agree with you.

They hit three threes on three straight possessions. And all of a sudden, the 12 point game is a three point game. And you're right back in it. The double digit lead isn't what it used to be. The opposite is true, too. Because the variance goes in the other direction. And I totally agree with you.

I think sometimes when we look at the shot quality and we look at the shot profile, and just to break down even more what you were saying, like the shot quality data on second spectrum, which accounts for the player who's actually taking the shots, like... They're vastly like the Celtics are vastly undershooting what they're at.

I think sometimes when we look at the shot quality and we look at the shot profile, and just to break down even more what you were saying, like the shot quality data on second spectrum, which accounts for the player who's actually taking the shots, like... They're vastly like the Celtics are vastly undershooting what they're at.

I think sometimes when we look at the shot quality and we look at the shot profile, and just to break down even more what you were saying, like the shot quality data on second spectrum, which accounts for the player who's actually taking the shots, like... They're vastly like the Celtics are vastly undershooting what they're at.

Their effective field goal percentage is like, according to those numbers, it'll even out by game. Exactly. Right. The whole point of that stat is a, it's a projection of if you continue this process over a very large sample size, this is most likely where the numbers will regress to or improve to. That is the point of that stat. But at some point, But you got to actually make the shots.

Their effective field goal percentage is like, according to those numbers, it'll even out by game. Exactly. Right. The whole point of that stat is a, it's a projection of if you continue this process over a very large sample size, this is most likely where the numbers will regress to or improve to. That is the point of that stat. But at some point, But you got to actually make the shots.

Their effective field goal percentage is like, according to those numbers, it'll even out by game. Exactly. Right. The whole point of that stat is a, it's a projection of if you continue this process over a very large sample size, this is most likely where the numbers will regress to or improve to. That is the point of that stat. But at some point, But you got to actually make the shots.

And if you're not making the shots, you got to take ones that are lesser variance when you're up 20. Because you don't want high variance when you're up 20. You want high variance when you're down 20. And if you're not the ones creating the high variance, which by the way, the Knicks often aren't. The Knicks are a team that finished like bottom 10 in the league in free throw, right?

And if you're not making the shots, you got to take ones that are lesser variance when you're up 20. Because you don't want high variance when you're up 20. You want high variance when you're down 20. And if you're not the ones creating the high variance, which by the way, the Knicks often aren't. The Knicks are a team that finished like bottom 10 in the league in free throw, right?

And if you're not making the shots, you got to take ones that are lesser variance when you're up 20. Because you don't want high variance when you're up 20. You want high variance when you're down 20. And if you're not the ones creating the high variance, which by the way, the Knicks often aren't. The Knicks are a team that finished like bottom 10 in the league in free throw, right?

They were a team that finished 28th in the league in three point attempt, right? Like they aren't a very high variance team. They were fifth in the league in offensive rating, but after January 1st, they were 13th, 14th in points per possession. Like this is, this is a team that is good at what it's good at, but it does not play a high variance form of basketball.

They were a team that finished 28th in the league in three point attempt, right? Like they aren't a very high variance team. They were fifth in the league in offensive rating, but after January 1st, they were 13th, 14th in points per possession. Like this is, this is a team that is good at what it's good at, but it does not play a high variance form of basketball.