Friedberg

Forget about whatever your f***ing issues are with Elon and his politics. Just to appreciate, and we can talk about why this is so important in this segment. But technically, the achievement of this skyscraper falling out of the sky and perfectly aligning itself to go into that chopstick-catching device, it is an absolute marvel of human ingenuity.

And the work and the effort that people put into this over several decades, it's just such an incredible feat. Look at this thing. I don't know if you guys were as emotionally moved by this as I was. I thought it was incredible.

And the work and the effort that people put into this over several decades, it's just such an incredible feat. Look at this thing. I don't know if you guys were as emotionally moved by this as I was. I thought it was incredible.

Right, you just catch it and go again. I can kind of walk through these numbers. So... Obviously, the big objective over time is how cheap can you get it to put material into space, we need a lot of material to go into space, if we're going to do things in space, particularly if we're going to go build a colony on Mars.

Right, you just catch it and go again. I can kind of walk through these numbers. So... Obviously, the big objective over time is how cheap can you get it to put material into space, we need a lot of material to go into space, if we're going to do things in space, particularly if we're going to go build a colony on Mars.

And so this shows you over time, the cost per kilogram, which is the key metric in this industry to launch material into low earth orbit. And you can see here how SpaceX has dramatically reduced the cost. I remember when the small sat era began in the 2010s. Do you guys remember all these startups that were starting to build like little small sats and put them up to do imaging and comms and stuff?

And so this shows you over time, the cost per kilogram, which is the key metric in this industry to launch material into low earth orbit. And you can see here how SpaceX has dramatically reduced the cost. I remember when the small sat era began in the 2010s. Do you guys remember all these startups that were starting to build like little small sats and put them up to do imaging and comms and stuff?

When this took off, It was about 10,000 bucks a kilogram to put a small sat into space or to put material into space. And then SpaceX has dropped the cost to the point that it's now close to $1,000 a kilogram. So a 10X reduction in cost in just the last decade or so. And that's why SpaceX just dominates the launch market. But Elon's always said that $1,000 a kilogram is too high

When this took off, It was about 10,000 bucks a kilogram to put a small sat into space or to put material into space. And then SpaceX has dropped the cost to the point that it's now close to $1,000 a kilogram. So a 10X reduction in cost in just the last decade or so. And that's why SpaceX just dominates the launch market. But Elon's always said that $1,000 a kilogram is too high

But his objective has been to get the cost down to 10 bucks a kilogram. Because at 10 bucks a kilogram, you could launch what some people estimate is needed to get to Mars, which is about half a million tons of material and people to set up a colony on Mars. And it actually becomes feasible to get, you know, half a million tons of material at 10 bucks a kilogram. So if you look at

But his objective has been to get the cost down to 10 bucks a kilogram. Because at 10 bucks a kilogram, you could launch what some people estimate is needed to get to Mars, which is about half a million tons of material and people to set up a colony on Mars. And it actually becomes feasible to get, you know, half a million tons of material at 10 bucks a kilogram. So if you look at

this new Starship and Starship heavy booster, it's about 150, 200 ton payload. The booster holds, you know, 3,400 tons of propellant. And, uh, the cost of that propellant is pretty low. You know, it's, uh, It's only about a million dollars in fuel.

this new Starship and Starship heavy booster, it's about 150, 200 ton payload. The booster holds, you know, 3,400 tons of propellant. And, uh, the cost of that propellant is pretty low. You know, it's, uh, It's only about a million dollars in fuel.

So then if you can get the cost of the booster and the Starship down enough, and you can reuse it enough, and you amortize the cost of making that device over the lifetime of the device, the cost per launch comes down. And that's what brings the cost per kilogram down. So the booster, there's a group called Payload, and they do estimates on this.

So then if you can get the cost of the booster and the Starship down enough, and you can reuse it enough, and you amortize the cost of making that device over the lifetime of the device, the cost per launch comes down. And that's what brings the cost per kilogram down. So the booster, there's a group called Payload, and they do estimates on this.

So I won't speak out of turn in terms of like having inside knowledge. But the Payload has estimated that Starship And the booster cost about 90 million bucks today. And they think that they have a path to getting it down to 35 million. So if you can reuse that thing 10 times, that's a $3.5 million cost per launch, plus a million for fuel. You could easily see, and this thing can launch 200 tons.

So I won't speak out of turn in terms of like having inside knowledge. But the Payload has estimated that Starship And the booster cost about 90 million bucks today. And they think that they have a path to getting it down to 35 million. So if you can reuse that thing 10 times, that's a $3.5 million cost per launch, plus a million for fuel. You could easily see, and this thing can launch 200 tons.

That's how you start to get to 10 bucks a kilogram. over the next couple of years, but it was critical to be able to reuse that heavy booster. And that's what Elon just demonstrated. It's we can actually catch that heavy booster, refuel it and launch it an hour later. And if you can do that over and over again, you're spending 10 bucks a kilogram to put material into space.

That's how you start to get to 10 bucks a kilogram. over the next couple of years, but it was critical to be able to reuse that heavy booster. And that's what Elon just demonstrated. It's we can actually catch that heavy booster, refuel it and launch it an hour later. And if you can do that over and over again, you're spending 10 bucks a kilogram to put material into space.

You can get fuel into space and then get those starships to fly off to Mars and deliver. all this material, including setting up a base that would allow you to actually make more fuel on Mars, because everything we need to make fuel is on Mars. So it's the beginning of the next series of really important milestones that'll hopefully get humanity onto Mars.