Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX's big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY

episode

Previously titled “Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY” — renamed by the publisher on Aug 6, 2026

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg 1h 18m 4 speakers transcribed
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David Sacks 0:00
Freeberg's channeling Tim Walls over there. I know.
Friedberg 0:02
Wow. He's as exciting as Tim Walls.
David Sacks 0:04
Got your flannel on. Do you know what a venture capitalist is, Freeberg? Oh, he's shilling Supergut.
Friedberg 0:09
Well, as of last week, when J. Cal decided to turn All In into a commercial, I was actually going to do a Supergut background. We're launching Supergut nationwide in Target this week. Any Target in the United States, you can go into and pick up Supergut. You can buy... The GLP-1 booster. You can buy the prebiotic shake. I have that, actually. Is that the chocolate? Or do you have the mocha?
Jason 0:31
It is the chocolate. I mean, I like the mocha. This one's chocolate. Okay. Mocha's good, too. All right.
Friedberg 0:36
Let's get started. Well, thanks for the support, J. Kel. I appreciate it.
Jason 0:37
Of course, of course, of course.
Chamath Palihapitiya 0:39
We're cutting all this out.
Friedberg 0:41
No way.
Chamath Palihapitiya 0:41
This is why I do this. Next time, plug a company I have a stake in.
Jason 0:48
Let your winners ride.
David Sacks 0:51
Rain Man, David Sasson.
Jason 1:03
Also, All In election night live stream is coming November 5th. You can watch live. Saks will be hosting. We're doing it. You're hosting it. Your team said you're doing it. And so you'll either get to see Saks.
Friedberg 1:15
Are you not going to Mar-a-Lago, Saks?
Chamath Palihapitiya 1:17
Well, if things continue to look good for Trump, I might go to Mar-a-Lago. I might.
Friedberg 1:23
Yeah. Okay, so you're maybe. Let's not commit sex. You're maybe. If you go to Mar-a-Lago, you're excused.
Chamath Palihapitiya 1:28
I could live stream from Mar-a-Lago.
Friedberg 1:30
Oh, that would be amazing. Absolutely.
Jason 1:31
That would be amazing. I'll go to Mar-a-Lago. That would be fun. Yeah, if it looks good, I'll go.
Chamath Palihapitiya 1:38
Of course I'm invited. I talked to Jared. If things look as good as they do right now, then I think I'm going to have to go to Mar-a-Lago.
Jason 1:44
I think we should all be in Mar-a-Lago.
Chamath Palihapitiya 1:46
It's going to be a unique experience.
Jason 1:47
Oh my God. Can you imagine being in Mar-a-Lago and he loses?
Chamath Palihapitiya 1:51
Oh my God. That would be dark. Unless this thing is in the bag. It's got to be too big to rig. If it's too big to rig, I'm going to Mar-a-Lago. Too big to rig.
Friedberg 2:01
Do you guys think polymarket is like, why do you think it's different from the polls? Are we talking about this today? Polymarket's showing like 60, 40 or 65, 35 now, right? Yeah, because they're measuring different things.
Chamath Palihapitiya 2:13
I've explained this before. Polymarket is people betting on the outcome. So 58% think Trump's going to win. Whereas the polls in a particular state show the percentage of how each person's going to vote. Hmm. So if for sure you knew the election was 51-49, the betting markets would swing to 100-0.
Friedberg 2:32
But let me ask you this. So Nate Silver's model, which takes the poll from each state and builds in a kind of a Monte Carlo of super poll, like a super model for the whole country. Why is his estimate 50-50 right now while the poly market is betting at 60-40?
Chamath Palihapitiya 2:49
It's possible he's laggy in his estimates. The betting markets seem to go based on momentum. It indicates the swing in momentum.
Friedberg 3:03
How do you think they're going to change after the interviews the last couple of days? Trump on Bloomberg and Kamala on Fox. Do you think those are going to change anything? I don't think so. I think it's all baked in now.
Chamath Palihapitiya 3:15
Well, Trump over the past few weeks seems to have had a surge owing to the fact that Kamala's interviews generally don't go well. So I think she started off a little behind, started doing interviews to catch up, and now she's a lot behind. I don't think the Bear interview is going to help her.
Friedberg 3:30
Well, let me ask you this. So my observation as, I don't know, I'm not like a super political person or whatever, a party-oriented person. I looked at a lot of the media on both sides, and it seems like everyone on the left says Kamala did an amazing job on Fox. She defended herself. She showed her skills and her competency. And then everyone on the right is like she embarrassed herself. She fell apart. And then the same thing happened with the Trump interview on Bloomberg. People are like, On the left, they say, look at how he couldn't handle the interviewer and he fell apart and all his lies were exposed. And everyone on the right's like, look at him, he got a standing ovation.

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