Friedberg

Someone called me, someone called me Frohman or Frohman from the 70s show. That was funny. The amount of trash talking in Rogan's YouTube comments, it's next level. It is. I mean, it is. It is the wild, wild west in terms of the comment section on YouTube.

Okay, let's steel man the bear case. Yes, that's what I'm asking, please. So one would just be on the fundamental technology itself. And I think the version of that story would go that the underlying Frameworks that people are using to make these models great is well described and available in open source.

Okay, let's steel man the bear case. Yes, that's what I'm asking, please. So one would just be on the fundamental technology itself. And I think the version of that story would go that the underlying Frameworks that people are using to make these models great is well described and available in open source.

On top of that, there are at least two viable open source models that are as good or better at any point in time than open AI. So what that would mean is that the value of those models, the economic value basically goes to zero and it's a consumer surplus for the people that use it. So that's very hard theoretically to monetize.

On top of that, there are at least two viable open source models that are as good or better at any point in time than open AI. So what that would mean is that the value of those models, the economic value basically goes to zero and it's a consumer surplus for the people that use it. So that's very hard theoretically to monetize.

I think the second part of the bear case would be that specifically meta becomes much more aggressive in inserting meta AI into all of the critical apps that they control, because those apps really are the front door to billions of people on a daily basis.

I think the second part of the bear case would be that specifically meta becomes much more aggressive in inserting meta AI into all of the critical apps that they control, because those apps really are the front door to billions of people on a daily basis.

So that would mean WhatsApp, Instagram, Messenger, the Facebook app, and Threads gets refactored in a way where instead of leaving that application to go to a chat GPT-like app, you would just stay in the app. And then the companion to that would be that Google also does the same thing with their version in front of search.

So that would mean WhatsApp, Instagram, Messenger, the Facebook app, and Threads gets refactored in a way where instead of leaving that application to go to a chat GPT-like app, you would just stay in the app. And then the companion to that would be that Google also does the same thing with their version in front of search.

So those two big front doors to the internet become much more aggressive in giving you a reason to not have to go to ChatGPT because A, their answers are just as good, and B, they're right there in a few less clicks for you. So that would be the second piece. The third piece is that all of these models basically run out of viable data to differentiate themselves.

So those two big front doors to the internet become much more aggressive in giving you a reason to not have to go to ChatGPT because A, their answers are just as good, and B, they're right there in a few less clicks for you. So that would be the second piece. The third piece is that all of these models basically run out of viable data to differentiate themselves.

And it basically becomes a race around synthetic information and synthetic data, which is a cost problem. Meaning if you're going to invent synthetic data, you're going to have to spend money to do it. And the large companies, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple, have effectively infinite money compared to any startup. Hmm.

And it basically becomes a race around synthetic information and synthetic data, which is a cost problem. Meaning if you're going to invent synthetic data, you're going to have to spend money to do it. And the large companies, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple, have effectively infinite money compared to any startup. Hmm.

And then the fourth, which is the most quizzical one, is what does the human capital thing tell you about what's going on? It reads a little bit like a telenovela. I have not in my time in Silicon Valley ever seen a company that's supposedly on such a straight line to a rocket ship have so much high-level churn. But I've also never seen a company have this much liquidity.

And then the fourth, which is the most quizzical one, is what does the human capital thing tell you about what's going on? It reads a little bit like a telenovela. I have not in my time in Silicon Valley ever seen a company that's supposedly on such a straight line to a rocket ship have so much high-level churn. But I've also never seen a company have this much liquidity.

And so how are people deciding to leave if they think it's going to be a trillion dollar company? And why, when things are just starting to cook, would you leave if you are technically enamored with what you're building? So if you had to construct the Barrett case, I think those would be the four things. Open source, front door competition.

And so how are people deciding to leave if they think it's going to be a trillion dollar company? And why, when things are just starting to cook, would you leave if you are technically enamored with what you're building? So if you had to construct the Barrett case, I think those would be the four things. Open source, front door competition.

The move to synthetic data and all of the executive turnover would be sort of why you would say maybe there's a fire where there's all this smoke.

The move to synthetic data and all of the executive turnover would be sort of why you would say maybe there's a fire where there's all this smoke.

We're seeing it in real time. In 80-90, what I'll tell you is what Sacks said is totally right. There's so many companies that have very complicated processes that are a combination of well-trained and well-meaning people and bad software. And what I mean by bad software is that