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Friedberg

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
1950 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

You just won't be able to justify it because it's going to cost a fraction of the price.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

You just won't be able to justify it because it's going to cost a fraction of the price.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

There are open source agentic frameworks that already do Freeburg what you're saying. So it's not true that it's not been done. It's already been done. Yeah, sure.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

There are open source agentic frameworks that already do Freeburg what you're saying. So it's not true that it's not been done. It's already been done. Yeah, sure.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

It hasn't been fully implemented to replace the system of record. There are companies, I'll give you an example of one, like Mechanical Orchard. They'll go into the most gnarliest of environments. And what they will do is they will launch these agents that observe, it's sort of what I told you guys before, the IO stream of these apps and then reconstruct everything in the middle automatically.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

It hasn't been fully implemented to replace the system of record. There are companies, I'll give you an example of one, like Mechanical Orchard. They'll go into the most gnarliest of environments. And what they will do is they will launch these agents that observe, it's sort of what I told you guys before, the IO stream of these apps and then reconstruct everything in the middle automatically.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

I don't understand why we think that there's a world where customer quality and NPS would not go sky high for a company that has some old legacy Fortran system, and now they can just pay Mechanical Orchard a few million bucks and they'll just replace it in a matter of months. It's going to happen.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

I don't understand why we think that there's a world where customer quality and NPS would not go sky high for a company that has some old legacy Fortran system, and now they can just pay Mechanical Orchard a few million bucks and they'll just replace it in a matter of months. It's going to happen.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

You nailed it a year ago when you were like, Oh, you mentioned some company that had like flat pricing at first, by the way, when you said that, I thought this is nuts, but you're right. It actually makes a ton of sense because if you have a fixed group of people who can use this tooling to basically effectively be as productive as a company that's 10 times as big as you,

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

You nailed it a year ago when you were like, Oh, you mentioned some company that had like flat pricing at first, by the way, when you said that, I thought this is nuts, but you're right. It actually makes a ton of sense because if you have a fixed group of people who can use this tooling to basically effectively be as productive as a company that's 10 times as big as you,

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

You can afford to flat price your software because you can just work backwards from what margin structure you want, and it's still meaningfully cheaper than any other alternative.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

You can afford to flat price your software because you can just work backwards from what margin structure you want, and it's still meaningfully cheaper than any other alternative.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

Except when the renewal comes. What happens when you have to spend a billion dollars on something? And then you're going to renegotiate. Are you going to spend a billion dollars again five years from now? It just doesn't seem very likely. There's going to be a lot of hardcore negotiations going on, Chamath.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

Except when the renewal comes. What happens when you have to spend a billion dollars on something? And then you're going to renegotiate. Are you going to spend a billion dollars again five years from now? It just doesn't seem very likely. There's going to be a lot of hardcore negotiations going on, Chamath.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

People are going to ask for 20% off, 50% off, and people are going to have to be more competitive. That's all. I suspect Palantir's go-to-market, when they start to really scale, they'll be able to underprice a bunch of these other alternatives. And so I think that when you look at the...

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

People are going to ask for 20% off, 50% off, and people are going to have to be more competitive. That's all. I suspect Palantir's go-to-market, when they start to really scale, they'll be able to underprice a bunch of these other alternatives. And so I think that when you look at the...

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

impacts and pricing that all of these open source and closed source model companies have now introduced in terms of the price per token. What we've seen is just a massive step function lower, right? So it is incredibly deflationary.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

impacts and pricing that all of these open source and closed source model companies have now introduced in terms of the price per token. What we've seen is just a massive step function lower, right? So it is incredibly deflationary.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

So the things that sit on top are going to get priced as a function of that cost, which means it will be an order of magnitude cheaper than the stuff that it replaces, which means that a company would almost have to purposely want to keep paying tens of millions of dollars when they don't have to. They would need to make that as an explicit decision.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war

So the things that sit on top are going to get priced as a function of that cost, which means it will be an order of magnitude cheaper than the stuff that it replaces, which means that a company would almost have to purposely want to keep paying tens of millions of dollars when they don't have to. They would need to make that as an explicit decision.