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Gary Smith

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
435 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

I think about it like this. Don't confuse compute capacity with the network. You know, the network is always the afterthought to all of this. It's, oh, my gosh, yeah, I do actually need to connect these data centers. And yes, I do need. They're thinking about, so what's the hierarchy of their thought process? It's, you know, I need the compute. I need the power. I need the space.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

You know, those are the things that are driving their decision. And then, by the way, oh, my gosh. I need to connect these waves right now. I'm being flippant, but, you know, it's down there. I'd like to tell you it was right up there, but it isn't. And that actually, in the answer to this question, is, I think, a good thing in that, you know, we kind of only get there when they need it.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

You know, those are the things that are driving their decision. And then, by the way, oh, my gosh. I need to connect these waves right now. I'm being flippant, but, you know, it's down there. I'd like to tell you it was right up there, but it isn't. And that actually, in the answer to this question, is, I think, a good thing in that, you know, we kind of only get there when they need it.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

You know, those are the things that are driving their decision. And then, by the way, oh, my gosh. I need to connect these waves right now. I'm being flippant, but, you know, it's down there. I'd like to tell you it was right up there, but it isn't. And that actually, in the answer to this question, is, I think, a good thing in that, you know, we kind of only get there when they need it.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

They're not building out these enormous capacities because we see it. We're putting capacity out there and they're putting traffic down it. I take real comfort from that having lived through 2002 and 2003 where, you know, our revenues went down from something like 1.6 to about 300 million in one year. So, you know, I've still got the scars for that. So I'm particularly sensitive to this.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

They're not building out these enormous capacities because we see it. We're putting capacity out there and they're putting traffic down it. I take real comfort from that having lived through 2002 and 2003 where, you know, our revenues went down from something like 1.6 to about 300 million in one year. So, you know, I've still got the scars for that. So I'm particularly sensitive to this.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

They're not building out these enormous capacities because we see it. We're putting capacity out there and they're putting traffic down it. I take real comfort from that having lived through 2002 and 2003 where, you know, our revenues went down from something like 1.6 to about 300 million in one year. So, you know, I've still got the scars for that. So I'm particularly sensitive to this.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

This is not the same dynamic to it. You know, they are actually putting capacity out and they, as fast as we put it out there, traffic is coming through it. So, you know, I think to your point and what a lot of other folks are saying is, is it going to get overheated in terms of the GPU stuff and the data centers and the rest of it? My own personal opinion, absolutely.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

This is not the same dynamic to it. You know, they are actually putting capacity out and they, as fast as we put it out there, traffic is coming through it. So, you know, I think to your point and what a lot of other folks are saying is, is it going to get overheated in terms of the GPU stuff and the data centers and the rest of it? My own personal opinion, absolutely.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

This is not the same dynamic to it. You know, they are actually putting capacity out and they, as fast as we put it out there, traffic is coming through it. So, you know, I think to your point and what a lot of other folks are saying is, is it going to get overheated in terms of the GPU stuff and the data centers and the rest of it? My own personal opinion, absolutely.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

Will there be a bit of a, you know, tail off and all of that? Absolutely. You know, will it take longer for applications in the AI world to truly, you know, generate the economic suspect? Absolutely. But we're not banking on that. We're just seeing this nice steady growth in bandwidth, which I think will, you know, pervade throughout that. Another way of answering your question.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

Will there be a bit of a, you know, tail off and all of that? Absolutely. You know, will it take longer for applications in the AI world to truly, you know, generate the economic suspect? Absolutely. But we're not banking on that. We're just seeing this nice steady growth in bandwidth, which I think will, you know, pervade throughout that. Another way of answering your question.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

Will there be a bit of a, you know, tail off and all of that? Absolutely. You know, will it take longer for applications in the AI world to truly, you know, generate the economic suspect? Absolutely. But we're not banking on that. We're just seeing this nice steady growth in bandwidth, which I think will, you know, pervade throughout that. Another way of answering your question.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

Bandwidth growth in the last two decades grows about 20%, 30% a year and has done and is not cyclical. And when you think about it, it shouldn't be cyclical, should it? I mean, it's just we're putting more and more applications. We're using our phones for more stuff. More people are getting phones, and all these devices are now connected. So that has been very steady and consistent throughout.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

Bandwidth growth in the last two decades grows about 20%, 30% a year and has done and is not cyclical. And when you think about it, it shouldn't be cyclical, should it? I mean, it's just we're putting more and more applications. We're using our phones for more stuff. More people are getting phones, and all these devices are now connected. So that has been very steady and consistent throughout.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

Bandwidth growth in the last two decades grows about 20%, 30% a year and has done and is not cyclical. And when you think about it, it shouldn't be cyclical, should it? I mean, it's just we're putting more and more applications. We're using our phones for more stuff. More people are getting phones, and all these devices are now connected. So that has been very steady and consistent throughout.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

Even when you get an economic downturn, it continues at about that pace. What we're talking about here is the advent of AI really on top of that. And so exactly what is it going to be? No one really knows. I mean, there's all kinds of models, but no one really knows. But it's reasonable to assume that it's going to come on top of that and could push us to 30%, 40% bandwidth growth per year.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

Even when you get an economic downturn, it continues at about that pace. What we're talking about here is the advent of AI really on top of that. And so exactly what is it going to be? No one really knows. I mean, there's all kinds of models, but no one really knows. But it's reasonable to assume that it's going to come on top of that and could push us to 30%, 40% bandwidth growth per year.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

Even when you get an economic downturn, it continues at about that pace. What we're talking about here is the advent of AI really on top of that. And so exactly what is it going to be? No one really knows. I mean, there's all kinds of models, but no one really knows. But it's reasonable to assume that it's going to come on top of that and could push us to 30%, 40% bandwidth growth per year.

Decoder with Nilay Patel
How Ciena keeps the internet online, with CEO Gary Smith

And I think that's going to be pretty sustainable. when you think about all the things of, you know, the promise of AI and the real trick to it is you start putting any graphics down it,