Gary Stevenson

But then this crazy thing happened, right?

Which was we had COVID.

And initially, COVID also caused interest rates to fall.

Although in many cases, interest rates were already zero even before COVID.

But interest rates did fall further where they could during COVID.

And the asset prices, similarly to 2008, they fell initially and then they went up.

But then after COVID, this like really crazy thing happened, which was suddenly inflation spiked, and interest rates increased very, very quickly.

So interest rates before COVID were sort of depending on what industry you're looking at, you know, base rates close to zero, longer term interest rates, maybe one, one and a half percent, very quickly seeing base rates go up to 5%.

And long term interest rates go up to like 5%, or maybe more in many cases.

So in COVID,

What we then had was severe economic weakness combined with aggressively rising interest rates.

So surely now asset prices are going to fall.

But what actually happened after COVID again, asset prices rose really quickly.

So this is like even crazier.

And I think really that's

Raising some questions about the correctness of the previous narrative.

Like if the idea was the reason that asset prices did so well after the economic crisis of 2008 and the economic malaise of the 2010s was because interest rates fell so much.

then that does not explain at all why asset prices did so well after COVID when the economy was weak and living standards were weak and also as interest rates rose significantly.

And we're seeing the same thing now, basically, in the Iran war, which is the Iran war.

Obviously, we're in the midst of it here and now.