Gary Sutton

So I wasn't going to include anything around the hot hand in my first book, just for the very simple reason that, okay, well, it's been evaluated before, what can I do that's new?

But then as I was writing the book, I got to thinking that many readers are going to expect to see something, right?

Okay, so you're analyzing the NBA, but you're not addressing the hot hand.

And so I found a way to add it in.

in a way that I thought was new or different from what I had been exposed to, at least me, what I had read previously.

And most of the analyses focus on field goal attempts.

And it's the idea that whether you're shooting field goals or free throws, these are dependent events.

So that when a player makes a shot, he increases the probability he's gonna make his next attempt.

And then if you also are successful on that attempt, now the probability of your next attempt is even higher than it would otherwise be.

So the fundamental question is, are these dependent events?

Or alternatively, are they independent, like coin flips?

So if I flip a coin and it comes up heads, that doesn't influence what the outcome of the next coin flip is going to be.

But in my book, because

An open layup is very different from a contested three.

Right.

Right?

And so how are you making judgments when the field goal attempts can be so different, right?

So I looked at free throws.

Every free throw is exactly the same.

They're taken in a very controlled environment.