Gary Sutton

Yeah, it's hypothetical data.

Right, so early in the year,

October, November, when you don't have a whole lot of data points to otherwise work with, the gamblers are actually even more accurate than the odds makers.

It doesn't even out, but the margin becomes a little tighter as the season progresses.

But still, at the end of the day, gamblers independently placing bets but aggregating their results in a collective way, the gamblers know more than the oddsmakers.

I mean, even the smallest margin can make a huge difference, right, when you're gambling.

So that was fascinating, I thought.

I went into it thinking that could be the case because, you know, going back to the gumball machine example, I appreciate...

the potential wisdom that you get when a crowd of people are allowed to independently make guesses and do other things.

Those results like the game show who wants to be a millionaire.

That's another example, right?

contestants were allowed to ask the audience when they didn't necessarily know the answer to the question, right?

So they delegated the response to the audience.

Well,

a huge percentage of the time.

So the audience is then making their guesses, right?

And everyone's doing that independently.

They're not collaborating in any way.

And way more often than not, the audience have the right answer.

Really?