Gary Sutton

Like I looked at the draft and –

and specifically first round draft picks, where they're drafted or selected in the first round, and then how do their careers map out once they're picked.

So does it really matter?

I think if you look at the NFL, Sean,

there's a lot of variation in terms of what you might expect a first round pick to have as far as a productive career.

In the NBA, the problem is much more acute.

You've got picks that, well, let me take a step back.

When I did my analysis, I would divide the first round draft picks into three very distinct groups or clusters.

You've got draft picks or players selected in the top five.

So I'm sure you're familiar with the metric of win shares.

So when you average out the number of win shares for players selected between one and five,

that number is much, much greater than any other

first round draft pick.

Oh yeah, two to three times at least higher than what you otherwise get in the first round or should otherwise expect.

So that's one group or cluster.

The second group or cluster would be draft pick six through 10.

So those players on average have careers that are much less than what you would expect from a player selected between one and five.

but otherwise much greater than any other first-round pick.

So when you think about draft picks 11 through 30, that's your third group or cluster.

Got it.