Gavin Baker

only thing i would add and i think dovetails with what you said and and um friedberg's kind of year of the robot is autonomous drones there's a company called zipline which my firm is an investor in yeah but autonomous drones they really are the best way to deliver almost anything to suburban america and then i think over time it will be sorted out so that they could deliver in cities as well

only thing i would add and i think dovetails with what you said and and um friedberg's kind of year of the robot is autonomous drones there's a company called zipline which my firm is an investor in yeah but autonomous drones they really are the best way to deliver almost anything to suburban america and then i think over time it will be sorted out so that they could deliver in cities as well

So I just think that that might be a little bit of a wild card for some of these delivery services.

So I just think that that might be a little bit of a wild card for some of these delivery services.

Apple intelligence is even worse than Copilot, which is saying something.

Apple intelligence is even worse than Copilot, which is saying something.

Do you guys think Tyson threw that fight? That it was part of the deal? Yes. Thousand percent. I so agree. I would love... I think somebody said Saudi Arabia was offering to host a remake or whatever, a rematch, a rematch of the fight where the winner would make 50 million and then we'll see what's what.

Do you guys think Tyson threw that fight? That it was part of the deal? Yes. Thousand percent. I so agree. I would love... I think somebody said Saudi Arabia was offering to host a remake or whatever, a rematch, a rematch of the fight where the winner would make 50 million and then we'll see what's what.

Yes. And the loser gets zero.

Yes. And the loser gets zero.

Well, first we should use Gemini deep research to just ask it to look at the total Pax Americana debt outstanding, apply the current market interest rate to it, and then look at that interest expense relative to GDP and generate that chart over time, that would be a cool chart. That would be interesting. I don't disagree with Chamath.

Well, first we should use Gemini deep research to just ask it to look at the total Pax Americana debt outstanding, apply the current market interest rate to it, and then look at that interest expense relative to GDP and generate that chart over time, that would be a cool chart. That would be interesting. I don't disagree with Chamath.

Anything is possible and there could for sure be a problem at a big bank. I don't know that I would say it's likely, but anything is possible. My most contrarian belief, so I think that America over the next, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than 5% GDP growth, real GDP growth.

Anything is possible and there could for sure be a problem at a big bank. I don't know that I would say it's likely, but anything is possible. My most contrarian belief, so I think that America over the next, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than 5% GDP growth, real GDP growth.

I think productivity is going to go vertical because of AI and deregulation. And I think there could be a world where this is the late 90s. And it doesn't sound like a big difference, you know, 5% or 6% versus 2% or 3%, but it is a massive difference. you know, at five or 6%, you know, the economy is doubling. You'll call it every 12 years, roughly. First 24 years at 3%.

I think productivity is going to go vertical because of AI and deregulation. And I think there could be a world where this is the late 90s. And it doesn't sound like a big difference, you know, 5% or 6% versus 2% or 3%, but it is a massive difference. you know, at five or 6%, you know, the economy is doubling. You'll call it every 12 years, roughly. First 24 years at 3%.

I mean, it's just, it's a massive difference in terms of kind of the wealth of the country and individual Americans. As far as a specific prediction for 25, because I don't know when that will happen, I think you will see the frontier labs stop releasing their leading edge models to prevent knowledge distillation and their IP effectively being stolen.

I mean, it's just, it's a massive difference in terms of kind of the wealth of the country and individual Americans. As far as a specific prediction for 25, because I don't know when that will happen, I think you will see the frontier labs stop releasing their leading edge models to prevent knowledge distillation and their IP effectively being stolen.

You know, DeepSeek from China, it was really impressive, but it thinks it's GPT-4. So I just think you'll see the labs keep their best models in-house, distill them, and put small models out over time.

You know, DeepSeek from China, it was really impressive, but it thinks it's GPT-4. So I just think you'll see the labs keep their best models in-house, distill them, and put small models out over time.