George Hahn

In every major occupational group that adopted computers heavily, employment grew faster than in groups that did not, Maximov wrote.

Computers eliminated specific tasks within jobs, but the resulting cost reductions created so much new demand that the occupations expanded overall.

Looking at AI, he concludes that the future of every knowledge profession hinges on a single question.

Is human demand for analysis, oversight, and assurance elastic?

I believe it is.

Case in point, computer programmers.

They're coding less and thinking bigger, according to journalist Clive Thompson, who interviewed more than 70 programmers in Silicon Valley and at small firms across the U.S.

As he noted, a coder is now more like an architect than a construction worker.

One executive Thompson interviewed put it this way,

I have never met a team at Google who says, you know, I'm out of good ideas.

The answer is always, the list of things I would like to do is nine miles longer than what we can pull off.

But as the cost of execution drops, new demand will likely come from areas that previously didn't have access to programmers.

Several developers suggested that the number of software jobs might actually grow, Thompson wrote.

An untold number of small firms around the country would love to have their own custom-made software, but were never big enough to hire, say, a five-person programmer team necessary to produce it.

The most frightening scenario is one in which AI disruption outpaces recovery velocity, hits every sector simultaneously, and encounters little pushback from policymakers.

But this ignores that societal tumult usually isn't due to unemployment, but people who are working yet still hungry, resulting in a loss of economic dignity and narratives to assign blame.

If it sounds as if we're already there, trust your instincts.

Inside Silicon Valley, the vibe is bleak.

As Jasmine Sun wrote in the New York Times, Most people I know in the AI industry think the median person is screwed and they have no idea what to do about it.

Worse, many say that artificial general intelligence, a technology that may never materialize, will create a permanent underclass.