Gordon Carrera

You can see them trying to engage that legitimacy narrative there to try and say, we are the rightful protectors of this country and, you know, against foreign powers trying to undermine it.

I'm utterly unconvinced anyone buys that these days.

And I think their legitimacy, their sense that their ability to govern the country also was undermined by that 12 day war with the US and Israel last summer, where basically the

You know, they were able to take out some of the senior figures and military figures, which showed that the government was weak, didn't strike back.

So you just feel the kind of legitimacy for this regime is evaporating.

I think that is a weak pillar in my mind.

Iran does get support from China and Russia.

And I think it's interesting, actually, Russia has particularly given it some support on how to crack down on protesters and how to do surveillance and things like that.

And some of the technologies of that, which is very interesting.

But still, fundamentally, particularly after you look at Venezuela, I think if you were Iranian, you're going to be going, they're not going to come and bail us out.

That there are allies that will help us to a point, but we're kind of on our own.

And I think that is the reality for it.

So if you're looking at the foreign environment, that last pillar, you've got less of a network of deterrents around you with the kind of Hezbollahs and Assad's and the like.

Your allies are a bit shaky.

And then, as we said right at the start, you've got the wild card, and it is a wild card of the US.

Does Donald Trump want to do a deal with the Iranian regime about opening it up somehow, or does he want regime change?

I think that's the kind of wild card and the question marks.

So that's the pillars, I guess, just as we come to an end of this first episode.

How challenging is it to actually take those six pillars and then just say, well, the answer is yes or no, it's stable or unstable.

It's not as simple as that, is it?