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Gordon Chang

👤 Person
683 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

China's not growing at the 5.0% pace reported for last year. It may not even be growing at all. But we know the trend is down because we can see price signals that suggest, actually, screen deflation. But even if China were growing at 5.0%, it probably wouldn't be growing fast enough for those guys to pay back debt.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

China's not growing at the 5.0% pace reported for last year. It may not even be growing at all. But we know the trend is down because we can see price signals that suggest, actually, screen deflation. But even if China were growing at 5.0%, it probably wouldn't be growing fast enough for those guys to pay back debt.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

China's not growing at the 5.0% pace reported for last year. It may not even be growing at all. But we know the trend is down because we can see price signals that suggest, actually, screen deflation. But even if China were growing at 5.0%, it probably wouldn't be growing fast enough for those guys to pay back debt.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

China not only has a problem with Trump at this moment, China not only has a problem with an economy that looks like it's contracting, China has now, it's 2008. In 2008, they did not want to suffer a recession. So they overstimulated their economy. They piled on the debt. And now that debt is just too heavy. So you've got all of these crises hitting at the same time.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

China not only has a problem with Trump at this moment, China not only has a problem with an economy that looks like it's contracting, China has now, it's 2008. In 2008, they did not want to suffer a recession. So they overstimulated their economy. They piled on the debt. And now that debt is just too heavy. So you've got all of these crises hitting at the same time.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

China not only has a problem with Trump at this moment, China not only has a problem with an economy that looks like it's contracting, China has now, it's 2008. In 2008, they did not want to suffer a recession. So they overstimulated their economy. They piled on the debt. And now that debt is just too heavy. So you've got all of these crises hitting at the same time.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

And so Xi Jinping, a couple of months ago, he looked like he was going to rule the world. Right now, he's going to be lucky just to wake up alive in the morning.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

And so Xi Jinping, a couple of months ago, he looked like he was going to rule the world. Right now, he's going to be lucky just to wake up alive in the morning.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

And so Xi Jinping, a couple of months ago, he looked like he was going to rule the world. Right now, he's going to be lucky just to wake up alive in the morning.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

Just to tie up that one point, I think that they're going to wait too long to sit down with Trump. I think that they are going to try and flood other markets. I don't think that's going to work. I think that Xi Jinping probably is seeing a closing window of opportunity. And this is the way I believe that he's calculating things right now.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

Just to tie up that one point, I think that they're going to wait too long to sit down with Trump. I think that they are going to try and flood other markets. I don't think that's going to work. I think that Xi Jinping probably is seeing a closing window of opportunity. And this is the way I believe that he's calculating things right now.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

Just to tie up that one point, I think that they're going to wait too long to sit down with Trump. I think that they are going to try and flood other markets. I don't think that's going to work. I think that Xi Jinping probably is seeing a closing window of opportunity. And this is the way I believe that he's calculating things right now.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

He knows that a war would be really, really unpopular with the Chinese people, especially a war on Taiwan. But I think that Xi believes that a war would help him in one very critical way. That is, it would prevent other Communist Party figures from challenging him. So I think it's in his interest for, you know, maintain these provocative activities.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

He knows that a war would be really, really unpopular with the Chinese people, especially a war on Taiwan. But I think that Xi believes that a war would help him in one very critical way. That is, it would prevent other Communist Party figures from challenging him. So I think it's in his interest for, you know, maintain these provocative activities.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

He knows that a war would be really, really unpopular with the Chinese people, especially a war on Taiwan. But I think that Xi believes that a war would help him in one very critical way. That is, it would prevent other Communist Party figures from challenging him. So I think it's in his interest for, you know, maintain these provocative activities.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

And remember, in the last couple of weeks, we have seen Chinese provocative activities in South Korea against Japan, against Taiwan, against the Philippines and against Australia. So something's going on here, which isn't very good. And one of these provocations could escalate into a war. I don't think Xi Jinping can control that escalation. He can't come to terms with whatever he's picked on.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

And remember, in the last couple of weeks, we have seen Chinese provocative activities in South Korea against Japan, against Taiwan, against the Philippines and against Australia. So something's going on here, which isn't very good. And one of these provocations could escalate into a war. I don't think Xi Jinping can control that escalation. He can't come to terms with whatever he's picked on.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

And remember, in the last couple of weeks, we have seen Chinese provocative activities in South Korea against Japan, against Taiwan, against the Philippines and against Australia. So something's going on here, which isn't very good. And one of these provocations could escalate into a war. I don't think Xi Jinping can control that escalation. He can't come to terms with whatever he's picked on.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

So this is one of the more dangerous moments in history.

The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 12th, 2025: Can China Survive A Tariff War? & Russia Launches Spring Offensive

So this is one of the more dangerous moments in history.