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Graham Stephan

👤 Speaker
3965 total appearances
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Voice samples: 5
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Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

Well, let me answer that with the one thing that shocked me the most, and that's about inflation, right?

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

We've heard, you know, we had 9.1% currently, if you believe CPI lie, 3.8, whatever it is.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

They're all talking about 2%, 2%, 2%.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

So the one question I asked myself after building it was, have we ever had a period of time, an extended period of time, where inflation was over 2% and it was CPI?

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

And the answer, surprisingly, was 1987 to 1997.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

CPI inflation was over 2% that entire decade.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

So we're talking about the Fed getting below 2% and it's been above 2% for four years.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

But guys, we've been there before.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

It was over 2% for an entire decade.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

So what we're going through today is maybe not unusual or unheard of as sometimes the media makes it out to be.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

There is no question that there is a correlation in certain cities, Seattle, Austin, San Francisco, San Jose, markets like that, where there's absolutely a correlation in the stock market.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

And again, you could see that in transactions because I talk to agents almost every week around the country.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

And when the stock market takes a big dip, which has done a couple of times in the last years, showing stop, all this other stuff, because again, it's their asset wealth there.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

But I actually want to ask you a different question.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

Back to the 52-year spreadsheet, because I knew I was coming here today.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

We've obviously had three years, and I think we're going to have a fourth year of double-digit S&P 500 growth.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

Do you guys know if that's ever happened before?

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

Do you guys know what happened the next 11 years?

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

It was flat.

The Iced Coffee Hour
This ALWAYS Happens Before A Housing Market Crash… | Michael Zuber

I have the numbers here on the spreadsheet.