Graham Weaver

The way I like to think about it is I like to think about the world in like endogenous, winnable games, and then ones that might be a little more exogenous and or unwinnable or hard to win. And so I don't wanna just go full on brute force in a non-winnable game.

The way I like to think about it is I like to think about the world in like endogenous, winnable games, and then ones that might be a little more exogenous and or unwinnable or hard to win. And so I don't wanna just go full on brute force in a non-winnable game.

So for example, in private equity today, it wasn't like this in 1984, but today if you have a big business, you're gonna hire an investment bank, you get the game, you're gonna show it to 55 private equity funds. For me to just go brute force in that red ocean as there's a great book called Blue Ocean Strategy, so they would call that a red ocean. For me to go brute force in that

So for example, in private equity today, it wasn't like this in 1984, but today if you have a big business, you're gonna hire an investment bank, you get the game, you're gonna show it to 55 private equity funds. For me to just go brute force in that red ocean as there's a great book called Blue Ocean Strategy, so they would call that a red ocean. For me to go brute force in that

I think, isn't a good exercise. If I have 100 units of energy, I want to use 25 of those units to go try to find a winnable game to play. And then the other 75 would be like the brute force endogenous path.

I think, isn't a good exercise. If I have 100 units of energy, I want to use 25 of those units to go try to find a winnable game to play. And then the other 75 would be like the brute force endogenous path.

So maybe using that, I like that framework. If we think about today's private equity landscape, where there are many, many funds that command huge sums of assets, my understanding, it's not the style of investing I'm in, but My understanding is if there's a good high quality asset, it's an auction process in many cases. It's a bidding war.

So maybe using that, I like that framework. If we think about today's private equity landscape, where there are many, many funds that command huge sums of assets, my understanding, it's not the style of investing I'm in, but My understanding is if there's a good high quality asset, it's an auction process in many cases. It's a bidding war.

And there are lots of great, highly professional, super talented investors and firms that can buy private business. Maybe describe the state of the market and what the characteristics might be of like winnable games within that broader market.

And there are lots of great, highly professional, super talented investors and firms that can buy private business. Maybe describe the state of the market and what the characteristics might be of like winnable games within that broader market.

I mean, I think there's 5,500 private equity funds at any given great high quality business like you're describing, particularly like take just the extreme high quality business, ERP subscription software business. I mean, it doesn't get any higher quality than that. There's a lot of people that can buy that.

I mean, I think there's 5,500 private equity funds at any given great high quality business like you're describing, particularly like take just the extreme high quality business, ERP subscription software business. I mean, it doesn't get any higher quality than that. There's a lot of people that can buy that.

There's a lot of people that can see what that's worth and do some calculation and come up with a value for that. And by the way, it doesn't necessarily go to the smartest person. it goes to the highest bidder. So it's a little bit different where that doesn't mean that they were the smartest person necessarily. It's just a really, really tough game.

There's a lot of people that can see what that's worth and do some calculation and come up with a value for that. And by the way, it doesn't necessarily go to the smartest person. it goes to the highest bidder. So it's a little bit different where that doesn't mean that they were the smartest person necessarily. It's just a really, really tough game.

And conversely, the winnable game that we're engaged in, and we learned this over the first 10 years of Alpine when we were really hands-on with these businesses, is we're going and finding a $20 million revenue plumbing company in Ball, Louisiana, where the owner's retiring and they need a new management team. There's just not a lot of people that want to sign up for that game.

And conversely, the winnable game that we're engaged in, and we learned this over the first 10 years of Alpine when we were really hands-on with these businesses, is we're going and finding a $20 million revenue plumbing company in Ball, Louisiana, where the owner's retiring and they need a new management team. There's just not a lot of people that want to sign up for that game.

It's a lot of work. I mean, we're putting in a new CEO in a small company. We're putting in new IT systems. We have a whole new playbook we're putting in. Godspeed if you want to play that game, particularly at scale. That's an endogenous, winnable game where it's just a ton of work. But then the investment decision ends up being pretty easy.

It's a lot of work. I mean, we're putting in a new CEO in a small company. We're putting in new IT systems. We have a whole new playbook we're putting in. Godspeed if you want to play that game, particularly at scale. That's an endogenous, winnable game where it's just a ton of work. But then the investment decision ends up being pretty easy.

When someone brings a deal to you and they say, okay, here's a business you're paying eight times EBITDA. With the playbook that you have, you can blend that down to five times EBITDA. You can borrow at five and a half and your platform's going to trade at 18. The investment committee decision there is not the hard part. The hard part is getting the CEO in place and the IT systems and all that.

When someone brings a deal to you and they say, okay, here's a business you're paying eight times EBITDA. With the playbook that you have, you can blend that down to five times EBITDA. You can borrow at five and a half and your platform's going to trade at 18. The investment committee decision there is not the hard part. The hard part is getting the CEO in place and the IT systems and all that.