Grant Harvey

There's now five major AI labs that are competing directly with Google.

That's crazy.

But I still think it's Google's to win.

I know it's kind of a controversial opinion.

Yeah.

But I truly do believe that it's Google's race to lose.

Let's put it that way.

They started further behind, but they were already ahead.

But, you know, back in 2016.

So I think at this point, it's just like, let's see if they can.

overcome the bureaucracy and get really smart people like Logan and Demis and let them push through and create something really epic.

I would say the framing with which I said it's Google's race to win or lose is based on the framing of AGI being this like,

take off a moment where, you know, all of a sudden some lab has the AGI internally and then they can just continuously self-improve forever.

I think the jury is still out on whether or not that's going to happen anytime soon.

But interestingly, I just recently saw Francois Cholet

and Dorkesh Patel talking about their AGI timelines when they released the launch of the ARC AGI 3 prize, which for anyone who doesn't know, ARC AGI 3 is basically like the next iteration of the ARC prize to try and prove that, you know, AGI is possible and that these models aren't just like memorizing things and they're actually generalizing and learning across, you know, large spans.

Exactly.

And this one's all games focused, which goes back to our conversation with Logan about gaming and his conversation with Demis on the Google podcast I referenced.

We'll include a link to that.

And they basically are saying, you know, Francois, he's like a major AI skeptic just because he thinks, you know, they're not actually generalizing or at least they haven't up until this point.