Greg Ip

I think we're actually right around the peak.

I think we're actually right around the peak.

And that, as you suggested, as Powell predicts, we're going to see less and less of that effect as the year unfolds.

And that, as you suggested, as Powell predicts, we're going to see less and less of that effect as the year unfolds.

And you're right, the tariff impact on inflation has been less than most people would have thought about a year ago.

And you're right, the tariff impact on inflation has been less than most people would have thought about a year ago.

I think the average forecast back then was we'd get about a percentage point of tariff inflation.

I think the average forecast back then was we'd get about a percentage point of tariff inflation.

And in fact, we only got about a half a percentage point.

And in fact, we only got about a half a percentage point.

And the good news is, is that we're probably not going to see tariffs going up any longer than

And the good news is, is that we're probably not going to see tariffs going up any longer than

In fact, there is increasing efforts by the Trump administration to pare back tariff increases by cutting deals with particular countries, by reducing the amount of specially sensitive products.

In fact, there is increasing efforts by the Trump administration to pare back tariff increases by cutting deals with particular countries, by reducing the amount of specially sensitive products.

There were reports this week that they're looking to narrow, for example, tariffs on steel and aluminum.

There were reports this week that they're looking to narrow, for example, tariffs on steel and aluminum.

And so as the tariff increases that we had last April, May, June recede into the past, they start to also drop out of our inflation numbers.

And so as the tariff increases that we had last April, May, June recede into the past, they start to also drop out of our inflation numbers.

And that would be good news for the inflation rate coming down as we get towards the end of this year.

And that would be good news for the inflation rate coming down as we get towards the end of this year.