Greg Ip

A small decline in bond prices, a small increase in bond yields.

So if you were hoping for some relief last week, mortgage rates dropped below 6%.

Don't expect them to go much lower.

Maybe they go a little bit higher the next day or two.

The issue with the dollar is an interesting one, Kai, because the dollar did go up, which is sort of what is supposed to happen when there's a war because the dollar is a safe haven.

But it's been a break from the prior year when you had all this geopolitical conflict and the dollar was going down.

And what that, I think, told us was that the U.S., at least for most of the past year, was now being –

seen as the source of instability because of trade wars and stuff like that, not the place you go to escape instability.

The last two days are a little bit of a break from that.

You know, I think all those things are going to like bear on that, Kai.

I think the president goes into this war on the premise that within four to six weeks, he can achieve most of his aims, which is really basically the capitulation of the regime in Iran to his key demands, stopping nuclear enrichment, stopping ballistic missile development, stopping support for proxies.

And so I suppose I would assume that he steeled himself there.

for some pain over that four to five weeks.

I think the thing is, if the four or five weeks elapse and he's not getting closer to his goals and the pain continues to build, that presents him with some really tough choices.

Because this is, as you say, a president that cares a lot about the stock market.

He's been

urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, claiming inflation is not a problem.

So if the war does not quickly start delivering the goals that he has set out for himself in the next few weeks, it does start to really elevate his pain points.

It really does, and a lot can happen.

Now, on the one hand, you might say, well, the Iranians, they have a lot of missiles.