Greg Smith

But yeah, but then you've got this budget, which has got some optimistic tinges to it.

But dealing with a lot of uncertainty, we don't know how long this conflict's going to go on.

But yeah, some really interesting divergences.

And also notice one versus...

What the Treasury is saying about when you look at rate hikes in New Zealand, the Treasury are only forecasting one this year.

The market's saying we're going to get over three.

We get an 80% chance of one in July.

So there's some interesting assumptions there.

Oh, for sure.

And you have stuff happening all the time.

I mean, just look at the last six years.

We've had a pandemic.

We've had Russia invading Ukraine.

And then we've had the US effectively launching a war, US and Israel launching a war against Iran.

So

Yeah, you wouldn't predict any of those things.

But look, that happens, and that happens throughout history.

It feels like a lot of stuff's happened in the last six years, which it has, but there is always stuff happening.

And, yeah, you have to make assumptions to the best of your ability, I suppose, and just have to sort of see how it all plays out.

But, yeah, there's budgets and assumptions.