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Hannah Fry

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
4089 total appearances
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Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

Because it's a dynamical system, it's something that changes over time, something that is, you can actually write the equations for it incredibly simply, you can teach them in an undergraduate course, and yet you can also make the models

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

incredibly sophisticated and complicated.

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

So much so that there are people whose entire careers have been in the study of the spread of epidemics.

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

The problem was at the time, the kind of cutting edge research in the UK, this is like 2007, 2018, right?

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

The cutting edge research in the UK

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

had to be based on data.

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

By the way, I should just add, just a quick reminder for everybody, this is two years before the actual pandemic.

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

I sort of think that the date of 2020 is probably seared into the minds of everybody, but we're talking before the actual pandemic.

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

The data that everybody was using at that point was essentially a paper survey that had been conducted some 20 years earlier that essentially said to a thousand people in the UK,

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

Hey, how many people do you reckon you were in contact with last week?

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

Okay, so it was like, people had to recall where they'd been, they had to kind of create a record based on memory.

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

And it was only 1000 people.

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

And it was by that point, you know, nearly 20 years old.

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

And so all of the academics, all of the mathematicians knew that if another pandemic

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

were ever to come, were ever to hit.

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

Anything like the Spanish flu epidemic that had killed more than 100 million people around the world the century before, if anything like that were to happen again, we were sort of woefully underprepared for what we actually needed.

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

So what we decided to do, we decided to set up this massive citizen science experiment where we created an app,

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

that we got 100,000 people to download and the app would track people and as they moved around and how they came into contact with other people.

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

Other people who had the app, yeah.

The Rest Is Science
Hannah Predicted a Pandemic

So we had 100,000 people all over the country basically playing this massive game of let's have a pretend pandemic that we spread out across everywhere.