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Hannah Petrovic

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
155 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

Absolutely.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

So, Matt, a little bit here of the context of why we were doing this before I get into the takeaway.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

To our understanding, no one had really taken on this humongous task of piecing together all the public information that there is about the finances of OpenAI or any large AI company, really, and trying to paint a picture.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

of what are their margins like, whether they are making enough money to recoup the large cost of developing new products.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

So we did this hermeneutic exercise of just hunting for all the information that we could find

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

and trying to make sense of it.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

Now, I won't pretend that we have arrived at the definitive answer.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

In fact, our views are constantly evolving as we learn more about the companies and their finances.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

But I'm pretty happy with the overall framework that we have established for even trying to think about this question in the first place.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

If I was trying to now communicate like, okay, in summary, what did we learn and what did we find?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

For me, the two most important takeaways is that one, it seems likely that OpenAI during the last year, and especially while operating GPT-5, was making more money than the cost of the compute, which is the primary expense of operating their product.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

Though they seem to have made like a very small margin or even having lost money after accounting for all the other operating expenses that are going to run in the model.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

So this is paying for staff.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

This is sales and marketing spending.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

This is administrative costs.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

And this also includes the revenue sharing agreement that they have with Microsoft.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

Now, the raw profitability, the operating margins of a company are not necessarily what you want to look at when you are trying to assess whether the company will be profitable in the long term.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

As Asim alluded to earlier, Uber lost billions upon billions of dollars before they finally became profitable.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

And really, if you are an investment-minded person, when you are looking at a growing business, you do not look so much at how much profit they are turning.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

in their early years where they're still growing, but rather you will rather look at the gross profit that they're making at their gross margins and how the revenue is scaling year after year.

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