Heni Ozi Cukier

History has taught us many lessons, and we should pay attention to its signs because we might be heading towards World War III.

One way to understand today's events is to look for clues from the past.

But cherry picking historical events to forecast the future is a risky exercise that it oftentimes only reinforces our biases.

So I want to do something different.

Instead of comparing historical examples with what is happening now,

I will examine four major dimensions of life, the social, economic, political, and military dimensions.

And I will analyze key trends within each one of those dimensions in three critical moments in history, before World War I, before World War II, and today.

Let's begin with the social dimension.

And there are many factors that shape societies, but I want to focus on how technological innovations have produced social anxieties and destabilized societies throughout history.

Before World War I, the Second Industrial Revolution was transforming life with electricity, cars, phones,

mass production and more.

While many celebrated these advances, they also disrupted societies.

For instance, machines replaced workers and new farming techniques uprooted populations from the countryside.

This led to insecurity and resentment.

At the same time, traditional authorities, such as churches and monarchies, they were questioned at that time.

And new mass movements, they emerged, such as labor unions and nationalist leagues.

People were afraid that progress was shaking the very foundation of societies.

Moving a little bit ahead in the interwar years before World War II, technology continued to affect life.

The word robot was even coined in 1921 and it symbolizes fears of possibly machines substituting human jobs.

At the same time, or a little bit later, the famous economist John Maynard Keynes warns us in 1930 of a new disease, namely technological unemployment.