Heni Ozi Cukier

There are two main ideas that we see all over.

The US-China economic interdependence will prevent war.

Really?

I just told you what happened in World War I.

Right.

So economics alone do not determine geopolitical outcomes.

We have to consider political, strategic, ideological and many other factors.

When we think of what is going on after or what happened after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

At that moment, states realize that it's too risky to be positive.

really dependent on your rival.

So as nations reassess today their economic dependencies, they are all moving towards one thing or actually two, self-sufficiency and economic nationalism, just like before World War II.

History reminds us that wars are not only caused by economic

situations but we have to take into consideration political factors and relative power all right so let's go to the political dimension here i want to talk about polarization and polarization not only divides societies but ultimately it might destroy the political order polarization comes in many forms

Divided media, political battles, legislative bad logs, contested elections, and its worst form, political violence.

And that's when armed groups emerged because they don't trust institutions to resolve the disputes of society.

What do we have in World War I, before that, actually, in the Balkans?

There is deep polarization and many nationalist movements clashing against the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

And that led to the Serbian group, the secret Serbian group, Black Hand, to assassinate the Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914, which wasn't an isolated event.

It was the result of years of political violence in a fractured society that triggered World War I. Now, what do we have before World War II?

The same situation, Germany.