Howard Marks

So I wrote in a memo recently this year, and I think it's true, that if this technological innovation, with its exuberance, doesn't produce a money-losing bubble, it'll be the first.

And now it could happen.

You know, you can't rule these things out.

And, you know, maybe this is a good time for me to introduce the rejoinder of the optimist.

What do they say?

This time it's different.

Okay, that was true about the railroads.

It was true about radio.

It was true about computers and the internet.

But this time it's different.

And this time we have a development of incalculable, unlimitable

value.

So this time, it's really true that there's no price too high.

That's what they say.

But the problem with that, Ed, is they always say that.

This time it's different is never different.

And they've said it in each of those bubbles that I mentioned, I think.

So

Nobody, including me, should say definitively that this is a bubble, that the people who invest in these early stages of AI will lose their money, that the people who invest in the companies you named will pay prices that they'll never see again.

but you must be alert to the possibility.