Ian Bremmer

But we are we are my only point is we are so far from Trump violating the the core commitment from his campaign in terms of how he would conduct national security.

I'm not saying it can't get bad and we could go on some kind of detour, but we're just not there now.

On balance, I think it's really close call.

I think he does actually deploy these ground troops because he feels like he needs to do something more on the nuclear side.

And because leaving the Straits this vulnerable to the Iranians is a really bad place to put the Gulf states and to eventually and to put the global economy.

If you do that, right, all I'm saying is you take Karg and the Iranian, the likelihood that the Iranians respond in really damaging ways is high.

So maybe in part,

the decision on taking card comes to how much they think they've really degraded Iran.

So even if they want to, they can't do that much damage in return by the time they get there.

Again, it is really hard to make a call on this, but we're talking about really big stakes.

Dan?

I think...

this war will probably go approximately, approximately 60 days from when it started, which means we still have a few more weeks.

I agree with Ian.

I don't think, well, first of all, I don't think the negotiations are gonna go anywhere, A, and B, I think Trump still thinks he has some tools in his toolkit that he can use militarily before he wants to wind things down.

And I will say that I just wanna come back to something Ian said.

He talked about Russia and Ukraine, and I agree with him.

There are four major threats to the United States today.

China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran.

Three of those four have a capability that makes it a nuclear capability that makes it very hard for the United States to ultimately confront them.