Ian Lance
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And I think what gives us conviction here is that their peers are still growing.
So going back to your question about...
How do you know a value trap?
Well, their biggest peer is a French company called Publicis.
Publicis are still growing at 5% per annum.
So, you know, there are definitely structural forces going on within the industry.
And despite that, Publicis is still growing at 5% per annum.
So that, I suppose, makes us think that it's probably a WPP issue, not an industry issue.
And we can see what the WPP issue is, which is it is still run as a series of fiefdoms.
So all those different advertising agencies, the J. Walter Thompson, et cetera, that were put together through a series of acquisitions were never really fully integrated.
And they're still run as separate businesses to the extent they sometimes they will pitch against each other for the same account.
We think the challenge is basically to integrate those different businesses into one company.
And the valuation is just crazy.
The valuation is absolutely crazy.
The share price today, I suppose, is about ยฃ2.70, something like that.
They are forecast to be 50p of earnings.
It absolutely does, which, funnily enough, we like, actually.
So the market is giving new management 0% probability of improving things.
We would say if they could just stabilise earnings at 50p, what do you put that on, 10 times or something?
That would be a five quid share price from kind of ยฃ2.60 today.