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Ian Lance

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
277 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

And I think what gives us conviction here is that their peers are still growing.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

So going back to your question about...

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

How do you know a value trap?

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

Well, their biggest peer is a French company called Publicis.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

Publicis are still growing at 5% per annum.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

So, you know, there are definitely structural forces going on within the industry.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

And despite that, Publicis is still growing at 5% per annum.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

So that, I suppose, makes us think that it's probably a WPP issue, not an industry issue.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

And we can see what the WPP issue is, which is it is still run as a series of fiefdoms.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

So all those different advertising agencies, the J. Walter Thompson, et cetera, that were put together through a series of acquisitions were never really fully integrated.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

And they're still run as separate businesses to the extent they sometimes they will pitch against each other for the same account.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

We think the challenge is basically to integrate those different businesses into one company.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

And the valuation is just crazy.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

The valuation is absolutely crazy.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

The share price today, I suppose, is about ยฃ2.70, something like that.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

They are forecast to be 50p of earnings.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

It absolutely does, which, funnily enough, we like, actually.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

So the market is giving new management 0% probability of improving things.

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

We would say if they could just stabilise earnings at 50p, what do you put that on, 10 times or something?

Merryn Talks Money
Cheap, Unloved, Profitable: The Case for Value Investing Today?

That would be a five quid share price from kind of ยฃ2.60 today.