Imran Khan

You have to, because if you don't spend, your business goes to zero. So look at Google versus Yahoo situation. So what happened? Google spent the CapEx, Yahoo didn't. Again, I was an analyst at that time. I was Google's IPO analyst. I covered Yahoo since 2002. It was a heated topic among investors. What Yahoo's lack of spend versus Google's spend?

Yeah, people are loving Yahoo because they don't spend that kind of money. 60% of the EBITDA was translating into cash flow, but Google was spending so much money on CapEx. People just couldn't figure out, like, why is the ROI? But 20 years later, we see the ROI. You know, like when I worked on Google IPO, we had this analyst meeting as part of this IPO. You go meet the CEO.

Yeah, people are loving Yahoo because they don't spend that kind of money. 60% of the EBITDA was translating into cash flow, but Google was spending so much money on CapEx. People just couldn't figure out, like, why is the ROI? But 20 years later, we see the ROI. You know, like when I worked on Google IPO, we had this analyst meeting as part of this IPO. You go meet the CEO.

Yeah, people are loving Yahoo because they don't spend that kind of money. 60% of the EBITDA was translating into cash flow, but Google was spending so much money on CapEx. People just couldn't figure out, like, why is the ROI? But 20 years later, we see the ROI. You know, like when I worked on Google IPO, we had this analyst meeting as part of this IPO. You go meet the CEO.

So there were like 20 analysts from different banks. We went to see Larry, Sergey, Eric Schmidt. And I remember one thing that really stood out. Larry said that the most transformative thing Google did was the AOL deal. Because AOL, they gave them 95% revenue share when AOL search box was powered by Google. AOL search was powered by Google.

So there were like 20 analysts from different banks. We went to see Larry, Sergey, Eric Schmidt. And I remember one thing that really stood out. Larry said that the most transformative thing Google did was the AOL deal. Because AOL, they gave them 95% revenue share when AOL search box was powered by Google. AOL search was powered by Google.

So there were like 20 analysts from different banks. We went to see Larry, Sergey, Eric Schmidt. And I remember one thing that really stood out. Larry said that the most transformative thing Google did was the AOL deal. Because AOL, they gave them 95% revenue share when AOL search box was powered by Google. AOL search was powered by Google.

The sign and all the Google powered the search on the back. And Google gave them 95% of the rev share. And I think 5% of the companies weren't. And Yahoo walked away from it because saying that this Google is never going to make money. But Larry said that that was the most transformative deal because that put Google on the map. People saw Google name and built Google's brand.

The sign and all the Google powered the search on the back. And Google gave them 95% of the rev share. And I think 5% of the companies weren't. And Yahoo walked away from it because saying that this Google is never going to make money. But Larry said that that was the most transformative deal because that put Google on the map. People saw Google name and built Google's brand.

The sign and all the Google powered the search on the back. And Google gave them 95% of the rev share. And I think 5% of the companies weren't. And Yahoo walked away from it because saying that this Google is never going to make money. But Larry said that that was the most transformative deal because that put Google on the map. People saw Google name and built Google's brand.

So if you look at AI, current cash cow is obviously cloud because all these guys are using the cloud businesses. And by the way, they're making great money. If you're Amazon, if you're Google, if I were running those businesses, my biggest concern would be now, I know the demand is not a problem, so I should be building it. But the risk I'm taking is that this demand is not sustainable.

So if you look at AI, current cash cow is obviously cloud because all these guys are using the cloud businesses. And by the way, they're making great money. If you're Amazon, if you're Google, if I were running those businesses, my biggest concern would be now, I know the demand is not a problem, so I should be building it. But the risk I'm taking is that this demand is not sustainable.

So if you look at AI, current cash cow is obviously cloud because all these guys are using the cloud businesses. And by the way, they're making great money. If you're Amazon, if you're Google, if I were running those businesses, my biggest concern would be now, I know the demand is not a problem, so I should be building it. But the risk I'm taking is that this demand is not sustainable.

Five years later, this demand is going to diminish dramatically. And then I'm going to get stuck with all this capacity I built. And look, that happened with Amazon in 2020. They built massive capacity thinking that the COVID buying patterns is the patterns going to sustain post-COVID. It didn't. And they had huge margins pressure.

Five years later, this demand is going to diminish dramatically. And then I'm going to get stuck with all this capacity I built. And look, that happened with Amazon in 2020. They built massive capacity thinking that the COVID buying patterns is the patterns going to sustain post-COVID. It didn't. And they had huge margins pressure.

Five years later, this demand is going to diminish dramatically. And then I'm going to get stuck with all this capacity I built. And look, that happened with Amazon in 2020. They built massive capacity thinking that the COVID buying patterns is the patterns going to sustain post-COVID. It didn't. And they had huge margins pressure.

So there is more than reasonable chance that this could happen, that we are seeing pretty significant demand. And at some point, demand going to stabilize or flatten. I don't know if it will or not. Only time will say. But that's the risk they are taking. And that's the risk you have to analyze that all my customers who are asking for this demand, do they have the power to pay me in a long term?

So there is more than reasonable chance that this could happen, that we are seeing pretty significant demand. And at some point, demand going to stabilize or flatten. I don't know if it will or not. Only time will say. But that's the risk they are taking. And that's the risk you have to analyze that all my customers who are asking for this demand, do they have the power to pay me in a long term?

So there is more than reasonable chance that this could happen, that we are seeing pretty significant demand. And at some point, demand going to stabilize or flatten. I don't know if it will or not. Only time will say. But that's the risk they are taking. And that's the risk you have to analyze that all my customers who are asking for this demand, do they have the power to pay me in a long term?

On Meta's case, I look at AI, I think people focus too much on LLM, but I think, okay, what are the areas that AI going to unleash value? At least, you know, I'm not the smartest guy. I'm the finance guy. I see humanoid robots. I see self-driving car. I create better recommendation engines. Defense, I think AI gonna play significant role defense. So there's a lot of categories that work.