J. Cal

I think this is what the market is saying is that regardless of who gets elected here, they've both kind of shown that the deficit will increase, not decrease under their presidency. And look, maybe that is positioning to get elected. And maybe there is a kind of more rational underlying economic advisory group that is counseling a different path than what they are presenting. And I hope...

I think this is what the market is saying is that regardless of who gets elected here, they've both kind of shown that the deficit will increase, not decrease under their presidency. And look, maybe that is positioning to get elected. And maybe there is a kind of more rational underlying economic advisory group that is counseling a different path than what they are presenting. And I hope...

to whoever is listening that that is the case for both candidates, very deeply hope. If you look at what happened in Argentina, so we've talked a lot about Javier Millet, he came in as president and his austerity measures by absolutely slashing government spending has reduced monthly inflation from 25% to around, you know, three and a half percent.

to whoever is listening that that is the case for both candidates, very deeply hope. If you look at what happened in Argentina, so we've talked a lot about Javier Millet, he came in as president and his austerity measures by absolutely slashing government spending has reduced monthly inflation from 25% to around, you know, three and a half percent.

So he's really kind of brought inflation under control. But the consequence of that is that the economy has now shrunk because the government is spending less. That means there's less revenue for certain businesses. There's less income for individuals. So they spend less. So the economy has shrunk by 1.7% in the last quarter and unemployment has spiked.

So he's really kind of brought inflation under control. But the consequence of that is that the economy has now shrunk because the government is spending less. That means there's less revenue for certain businesses. There's less income for individuals. So they spend less. So the economy has shrunk by 1.7% in the last quarter and unemployment has spiked.

So now unemployment is at 8% in Argentina and it's rising fast. So for the US to actually execute this policy, when we have a fundamental mandate for the federal reserve to keep unemployment low, means that something is going to have to break. You can't keep unemployment low and inflation low if federal spending gets too high and federal debt gets too high.

So now unemployment is at 8% in Argentina and it's rising fast. So for the US to actually execute this policy, when we have a fundamental mandate for the federal reserve to keep unemployment low, means that something is going to have to break. You can't keep unemployment low and inflation low if federal spending gets too high and federal debt gets too high.

So we are in a condition now where federal debt is too high. And if we cut federal spending too fast, we end up seeing unemployment spike. And if we don't, we're going to have inflation spike. Those are the two paths we could walk.

So we are in a condition now where federal debt is too high. And if we cut federal spending too fast, we end up seeing unemployment spike. And if we don't, we're going to have inflation spike. Those are the two paths we could walk.

Best point I've heard in a long time. That's a great point, Sax. Give us the election update. What's going on? Are we going to get your guy in office? Is it going to be Vice President Harris? What's the sense of what the polls are telling you? of what the markets are telling us. What's your read on where we're at?

Best point I've heard in a long time. That's a great point, Sax. Give us the election update. What's going on? Are we going to get your guy in office? Is it going to be Vice President Harris? What's the sense of what the polls are telling you? of what the markets are telling us. What's your read on where we're at?

Yeah. And the essay that Nate Silver wrote that was published by the New York Times yesterday said, it's a 50-50 toss-up. Either candidate could win, but my gut tells me it's going to be Trump. He's kind of indicated that's where, you know, as a guy who's obviously been a big prognosticator, it says the market's headed. J. Cal, do you think Sachs is right on this? Anything you're picking up on?

Yeah. And the essay that Nate Silver wrote that was published by the New York Times yesterday said, it's a 50-50 toss-up. Either candidate could win, but my gut tells me it's going to be Trump. He's kind of indicated that's where, you know, as a guy who's obviously been a big prognosticator, it says the market's headed. J. Cal, do you think Sachs is right on this? Anything you're picking up on?

On PolyMarket?

On PolyMarket?

It was reported this morning that a French trader- has bet $45 million on Trump on Polymarket, that he is the whale. He's a French national with quote, extensive trading experience. He's not quote, manipulating the market. He just really is trying to build a big position. So he sounds like he's a pretty active trader that made the big move.

It was reported this morning that a French trader- has bet $45 million on Trump on Polymarket, that he is the whale. He's a French national with quote, extensive trading experience. He's not quote, manipulating the market. He just really is trying to build a big position. So he sounds like he's a pretty active trader that made the big move.

I'll tell you guys my kind of view is like things seem to be getting more inflammatory leading up to the election here. It's like we've got 12 days left or whatever it is. And the rhetoric and the tonality of the stuff that's being said is getting so nasty on both sides. And I just worry more about the reconciliation reconstruction phase that needs to happen in America.

I'll tell you guys my kind of view is like things seem to be getting more inflammatory leading up to the election here. It's like we've got 12 days left or whatever it is. And the rhetoric and the tonality of the stuff that's being said is getting so nasty on both sides. And I just worry more about the reconciliation reconstruction phase that needs to happen in America.