Jack Horgan-Jones

So, look, a lot of everything that we're seeing there is within the margin of error.

So it's not a seismic poll for anyone.

But once you kind of take a step back,

and look at the trends that are being suggested since the general election, that's when a picture begins to emerge, which is more clear.

And Dan Murray does that in his poll analysis on page six and seven of the Business Post, where he reports that since the 2024 general election,

Fine Gael has now fallen five points in this polling series, while Fianna Fáil has fallen six points.

So that is, as Dan writes, a hefty 11-point decline between them.

What's interesting is that while Sinn Féin has grown up six points since the election and is the most popular party in the state, both in this polling series and in others,

there is a fair degree of speculation and discussion and indeed behind the scenes criticism from within Sinn Féin itself of the strategic direction of the party under its current leader, Mary Lou MacDonald, as the party gathered in Belfast this weekend for its hour dash.

That's the perennial piece of theorising around Sinn Féin, you know, that the quote-unquote shadowy figures in West Belfast will be making the call, something that the party itself...

Obviously disputes.

Pierce Doherty and Matt Carthy are the two names that are, you know, discussed most frequently.

I think that the problems for Sinn Féin are perhaps more deep than might be addressed by a simple change of leader, particularly a change of leader to someone like Pierce or Matt, who have been to the fore of the more aggressive approach.

approach that the party has taken since the last election.

Jen Bray, the political editor of the Sunday Times, has a very good read on Sinn Féin in that paper this weekend, where, unusually enough, there are critics, albeit unnamed critics, of Mary Lou MacDonald giving voice to

a view within the party that it is now not a case of if, but of when.

And they do point to the potential negative result for the party in both the Dublin Central by-election and in the Galway West by-election as a potential trigger for not a heave, but something of a more orderly transition.

I mean, this is the point I was kind of coming to, although just as a brief aside, it is interesting when you look into the Red Sea numbers that a lot of the growth in support for Sinn Féin seems to be coming from kind of Connacht Ulster, those kind of areas as opposed to within Dublin.

I think that the problem for Sinn Féin is not necessarily that it is plateauing, albeit as the most popular party,

It's like I can't see where the engine of growth comes from for Sinn Féin.