Jacqui Newman

Also, as it relates to Elon Musk, he's locked up for 366 days, which is, you know, a bit longer than the standard in the US.

So, you know, those are interesting dynamics to be aware of.

Exactly.

I guess the thing, though, to be aware is around the timing of those escrow releases and when they come up, that there is the potential for a significant volume of stock to be released into the market.

And when that comes on, if they do sell, that can be a drag on the share price.

So it helps to sort of be aware of when those lockups are going to expire and

and the stock that might come out as a result of that.

Yeah, I think, yeah, I mean, from a percentage wise, it feels, you know, quite small, but probably what's more relevant here is just the sheer volume that that actually represents, right, at $75 billion.

That is a very significant volume of stock.

And

If we look at the largest IPO that's happened ever, it's Saudi Aramco, which was $26 billion.

So an IPO of $75 billion would eclipse that significantly.

So I think it's more around just the sheer volume of stock that's coming onto the market rather than the percentage of issued capital per se.

So, you know, US markets and even global indices now are really concentrated in tech.

And so clearly, you know, adding another $2 trillion of sort of, you know, tech slash AI to that is going to increase the concentration of these indices even further.

So there's some really interesting research out recently from the Bank of America chief strategist that hypothesized that if anthropic open AI and SpaceX were added to the economy,

to the big 10, so the magnificent 7 plus Broadcom, AMD and Micron, that the resulting 13 sort of AI companies would account for almost 50% of the S&P 500.

So that is a tremendous level of concentration within a particular sector.

how are IPOs priced?

It's not just the case that the investment banks or the issuer will just slap a price on it and off you go.