James Altucher

Like suddenly there was just all this extra free money for many people and they started buying more things. They were willing to pay more money for things. People recognize this. So suppliers charged more. That's almost, if you look at almost every time there's like periods of inflation, not just in the US, but in any country, it's when money, just free money happens to be around.

Yeah, so that's why I just wanted to take inflation off the table, because historically, tariffs don't cause inflation. We have the example of 2018, 2019, early 2020. We have the example of the entire 1800s. We have the example of Smoot-Hawley, where there was deflation instead of inflation. The worse the tariffs are, the more deflation there is, because industries go bad.

Yeah, so that's why I just wanted to take inflation off the table, because historically, tariffs don't cause inflation. We have the example of 2018, 2019, early 2020. We have the example of the entire 1800s. We have the example of Smoot-Hawley, where there was deflation instead of inflation. The worse the tariffs are, the more deflation there is, because industries go bad.

Yeah, so that's why I just wanted to take inflation off the table, because historically, tariffs don't cause inflation. We have the example of 2018, 2019, early 2020. We have the example of the entire 1800s. We have the example of Smoot-Hawley, where there was deflation instead of inflation. The worse the tariffs are, the more deflation there is, because industries go bad.

And that's why we're worried about a recession. I don't think anybody really is worried about hyperinflation right now. It's not like we have so much money, we got to take a wheelbarrow of dollars to buy a loaf of bread. We're really worried about a recession, which is kind of corresponds with deflation rather than inflation.

And that's why we're worried about a recession. I don't think anybody really is worried about hyperinflation right now. It's not like we have so much money, we got to take a wheelbarrow of dollars to buy a loaf of bread. We're really worried about a recession, which is kind of corresponds with deflation rather than inflation.

And that's why we're worried about a recession. I don't think anybody really is worried about hyperinflation right now. It's not like we have so much money, we got to take a wheelbarrow of dollars to buy a loaf of bread. We're really worried about a recession, which is kind of corresponds with deflation rather than inflation.

So inflation is just off the table, which is why I bring up that example. It never occurs because of tariffs. It didn't occur in 2018, didn't occur in 1929, didn't occur in the 1800s. Some prices do go up, but that means other prices go down. So that's that. But the problem is, could industry go bad if prices on steel go up because of 25% steel tariff on China?

So inflation is just off the table, which is why I bring up that example. It never occurs because of tariffs. It didn't occur in 2018, didn't occur in 1929, didn't occur in the 1800s. Some prices do go up, but that means other prices go down. So that's that. But the problem is, could industry go bad if prices on steel go up because of 25% steel tariff on China?

So inflation is just off the table, which is why I bring up that example. It never occurs because of tariffs. It didn't occur in 2018, didn't occur in 1929, didn't occur in the 1800s. Some prices do go up, but that means other prices go down. So that's that. But the problem is, could industry go bad if prices on steel go up because of 25% steel tariff on China?

people stop building things because it's too expensive to build things and will the housing industry collapse and people lose their jobs and then we have a recession and it's like a death spiral down. So it's not that I'm worried price will go up. The real worry is will there be a big recession? And even there, The answer is a solid no.

people stop building things because it's too expensive to build things and will the housing industry collapse and people lose their jobs and then we have a recession and it's like a death spiral down. So it's not that I'm worried price will go up. The real worry is will there be a big recession? And even there, The answer is a solid no.

people stop building things because it's too expensive to build things and will the housing industry collapse and people lose their jobs and then we have a recession and it's like a death spiral down. So it's not that I'm worried price will go up. The real worry is will there be a big recession? And even there, The answer is a solid no.

Like, everybody's worried, will there be another depression like what happened when the Smoot-Hawley tariff happened in 1929? And the main difference is the Smoot-Hawley tariff was a blanket tariff on everything, just like that 10% tariff Trump is doing now. That's a blanket tariff. Not the reciprocal ones, but the blanket 10% tariff that he announced. But...

Like, everybody's worried, will there be another depression like what happened when the Smoot-Hawley tariff happened in 1929? And the main difference is the Smoot-Hawley tariff was a blanket tariff on everything, just like that 10% tariff Trump is doing now. That's a blanket tariff. Not the reciprocal ones, but the blanket 10% tariff that he announced. But...

Like, everybody's worried, will there be another depression like what happened when the Smoot-Hawley tariff happened in 1929? And the main difference is the Smoot-Hawley tariff was a blanket tariff on everything, just like that 10% tariff Trump is doing now. That's a blanket tariff. Not the reciprocal ones, but the blanket 10% tariff that he announced. But...

Smoot-Hawley was almost a 60% tariff, or let's say 50% tariff on everything that was being imported. So 50%, if you put a 50% tariff, you're basically saying, we don't want to trade with you ever again. If you put a 10% tariff, you're saying, please trade with us as much as possible so we make that 10%. And you're also saying with these reciprocal tariffs, hey, you tariff us, we tariff you,

Smoot-Hawley was almost a 60% tariff, or let's say 50% tariff on everything that was being imported. So 50%, if you put a 50% tariff, you're basically saying, we don't want to trade with you ever again. If you put a 10% tariff, you're saying, please trade with us as much as possible so we make that 10%. And you're also saying with these reciprocal tariffs, hey, you tariff us, we tariff you,

Smoot-Hawley was almost a 60% tariff, or let's say 50% tariff on everything that was being imported. So 50%, if you put a 50% tariff, you're basically saying, we don't want to trade with you ever again. If you put a 10% tariff, you're saying, please trade with us as much as possible so we make that 10%. And you're also saying with these reciprocal tariffs, hey, you tariff us, we tariff you,

let's call the whole thing off. Like, let's just meet at the negotiating table and negotiate, which is what he's been doing with Canada, with Mexico, with China. Look, Apple today just announced they're going to spend $500 billion today in the U.S. to build factories here so they can make products here. So $500 billion is a lot of money.