James Kynge

Well, yes, Alice.

I mean, you know, really, we're only just a couple of weeks into 2026 and already this year is turning out to be something of an annus horribilis for Chinese foreign policy.

Two of China's biggest partners are plunged into, well, different sorts of chaos at the moment.

We've been talking about Venezuela after the removal of Nicolas Maduro by US troops.

And now in Iran, we're seeing demonstrations raging across the country and hundreds of demonstrators killed by the regime.

Just let me try and put this into perspective from a Chinese perspective.

First of all, this is a big blow from an oil import perspective.

If we add up

Venezuela's contribution to Chinese oil imports and Iran's contribution to the same oil imports, we get close to about 20%.

That's one fifth of China's imported oil needs, which could be disrupted, both in the case of Venezuela, which accounts for about 4% of China's oil imports, and in the case of Iran, which accounts for close to 15%.

So if there is

A deeper chaos in Iran or perhaps even regime change, that could be a major blow for China in terms of its reliance on imported oil.

But let me just go a little bit further and stick with Iran for just one second.

China is Iran's biggest trade partner.

And it's also a significant strategic backer of Iran, which has basically been isolated by the West for many years now.

China buys about 90% of Iran's oil at a significant discount because...

Iran's oil is sanctioned by most Western powers and therefore they can't buy it.

So Iran needs to sell that oil to somebody.

This means effectively that China gives the Iranian regime an economic lifeline.

Aside from that,