James Kynge
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
chief strategist at the China International Capital Corporation, which is a famous investment bank in China.
Some people call it the Goldman Sachs of China.
And he said that because China's manufacturing competitiveness is so strong, a window for renminbi appreciation is opening.
And then another quite influential Chinese voice, Wei-jen Shan, who is chief executive of a private equity company called PAG.
He's based in Hong Kong.
He said, and this is even more dramatic, that a gradual appreciation of at least 50 percent
in the value of the renminbi over the next five years would be both feasible and beneficial to China.
So I don't know if we agree on his estimate there of over 50%, but in the minds of several economists and some of the data that you've just been quoting, the renminbi is severely undervalued.
We're talking 20, 30.
And so if...
This really does change now.
Even if there's a gradual appreciation that goes on for several years to come, so many things will change.
China's appetite for imports may well change because it means that imports will become cheaper to Chinese people.
Maybe investors all over the world will say, oh, Chinese assets are
are going to become more valuable relative to the US dollar as the renminbi climbs against the US dollar.
And so therefore, let's buy some of these Chinese stocks.
I mean, I remember I was in Japan in the 80s.
I remember that happening in such a massive way in the 80s after the yen began to appreciate post the Plaza Accord in 1985, I think it was.
And we saw huge
huge tidal waves of capital inflows into the Japanese market.