James Manyika

So that seems to be at least one path.

The other path that we've seen is that when you've got developing countries that tend to have large and competitive private sectors, and I emphasize competitive, that actually seems to make a difference.

So we did some empirical work where we looked at something like 75 developing countries over the last 25 years to see what are some of the patterns of

which ones of those have done well, because of the growth and development and so forth.

And so the factors that you see, we found in that research, is in fact, when the countries that happen to have, as I said, one is proximity to either all participants in the global value chains of

other large ecosystems or economies did well.

Second, those that seem to have these large and vibrant and very competitive private sector economies also seem to do better.

And then also those that had resource endowments did well.

So that, I don't know, oil and natural resources and those kinds of things also seem to do well.

And then we also find that those that seem to have more

mixed economies.

So they didn't just rely on one part of their economy, but they had two or three different kinds of activities going on in their economy.

Then maybe a little bit of a manufacturing sector, a little bit of an agricultural sector, a little bit of a service sector.

So the ones that had more mixed economies seemed to do well.

And then the other big thing was the ones that seemed to be reforming their economies seemed to do well.

So at least those are some patterns.

I don't think those are...

guaranteed in any of them to be the recipe for the next few decades, partly because much of that picture around global supply chains is changing, and much of the role of technology and how it affects how people participate in the global economy is changing.

So I think those are useful, but I don't know if they're an assured recipe going forward.

There certainly have been the patterns for the last 25 years, but maybe that's a place to start if you look forward.