James Menendez

I think rather than surrender, it may well deteriorate to a point where Ukraine would have to engage in a far less or an even less arguably favourable peace deal where they would have to, for example, meet Russia's continued demands that it would have a shrunk military, that President Zelensky would be forced from power, that any NATO talk would be paused completely and that there would be no foreign troops in Ukraine.

I think rather than surrender, it may well deteriorate to a point where Ukraine would have to engage in a far less or an even less arguably favourable peace deal where they would have to, for example, meet Russia's continued demands that it would have a shrunk military, that President Zelensky would be forced from power, that any NATO talk would be paused completely and that there would be no foreign troops in Ukraine.

I think rather than surrender, it may well deteriorate to a point where Ukraine would have to engage in a far less or an even less arguably favourable peace deal where they would have to, for example, meet Russia's continued demands that it would have a shrunk military, that President Zelensky would be forced from power, that any NATO talk would be paused completely and that there would be no foreign troops in Ukraine.

So things really would deteriorate. And even if Europe got its ducks in a row, increased defence spending, channelled more resources to Ukraine, it would likely not happen in time without America.

So things really would deteriorate. And even if Europe got its ducks in a row, increased defence spending, channelled more resources to Ukraine, it would likely not happen in time without America.

So things really would deteriorate. And even if Europe got its ducks in a row, increased defence spending, channelled more resources to Ukraine, it would likely not happen in time without America.

That is just unknown. What we've seen from European leaders, a lot of talk over the past week, a lot of pledges. And I remember the European Union setting a target for manufacturing a million artillery shells in a year, and it missed that target. Whereas Russia can manufacture shells three times faster than the whole of Ukraine's Western allies combined. So...

That is just unknown. What we've seen from European leaders, a lot of talk over the past week, a lot of pledges. And I remember the European Union setting a target for manufacturing a million artillery shells in a year, and it missed that target. Whereas Russia can manufacture shells three times faster than the whole of Ukraine's Western allies combined. So...

That is just unknown. What we've seen from European leaders, a lot of talk over the past week, a lot of pledges. And I remember the European Union setting a target for manufacturing a million artillery shells in a year, and it missed that target. Whereas Russia can manufacture shells three times faster than the whole of Ukraine's Western allies combined. So...

Just how Europe can ramp up its production in this way is the crucial question. But we have to imagine the war that Ukraine is fighting, weathering Russia's full-scale invasion. Lise mentioned that slowing of American aid last year. I mean, when you're on the front lines, the only artillery you could hear... was from the Russian side. That's changed in some areas, but it's about suppressing fire.

Just how Europe can ramp up its production in this way is the crucial question. But we have to imagine the war that Ukraine is fighting, weathering Russia's full-scale invasion. Lise mentioned that slowing of American aid last year. I mean, when you're on the front lines, the only artillery you could hear... was from the Russian side. That's changed in some areas, but it's about suppressing fire.

Just how Europe can ramp up its production in this way is the crucial question. But we have to imagine the war that Ukraine is fighting, weathering Russia's full-scale invasion. Lise mentioned that slowing of American aid last year. I mean, when you're on the front lines, the only artillery you could hear... was from the Russian side. That's changed in some areas, but it's about suppressing fire.

It's about targeting supply routes to hinder the sort of relentless Russian assaults you see on so many parts of the front lines. And if Europe is likely to struggle to fill that gap, as America continues to pull the rug as part of this negotiating strategy, there would be a lag.

It's about targeting supply routes to hinder the sort of relentless Russian assaults you see on so many parts of the front lines. And if Europe is likely to struggle to fill that gap, as America continues to pull the rug as part of this negotiating strategy, there would be a lag.

It's about targeting supply routes to hinder the sort of relentless Russian assaults you see on so many parts of the front lines. And if Europe is likely to struggle to fill that gap, as America continues to pull the rug as part of this negotiating strategy, there would be a lag.

And I think you could see, I mean, the status quo is Ukraine's biggest enemy as well here, in that just because the map doesn't change much, just because the front lines move here or there in a in such a big country.

And I think you could see, I mean, the status quo is Ukraine's biggest enemy as well here, in that just because the map doesn't change much, just because the front lines move here or there in a in such a big country.

And I think you could see, I mean, the status quo is Ukraine's biggest enemy as well here, in that just because the map doesn't change much, just because the front lines move here or there in a in such a big country.

That's not to say there couldn't be a catastrophic collapse at some point and Russia could break through and suddenly entire highways fall into Russian hands and cities start to sit nervously. So I think there would be a lag, but we just don't know yet what the lead time will be for the likes of Germany and the more hawkish UK and France to step up.

That's not to say there couldn't be a catastrophic collapse at some point and Russia could break through and suddenly entire highways fall into Russian hands and cities start to sit nervously. So I think there would be a lag, but we just don't know yet what the lead time will be for the likes of Germany and the more hawkish UK and France to step up.