James Stewart

The five data points they show were collected several years apart by ship surveys, and it's well known and well established that they give a highly misleading impression of AMOC decline. To be fair, the authors acknowledge this in the discussion, and they do say there's large uncertainty in their conclusions. To bring us back then to the big question of when will the AMOC collapse?

That paper we just mentioned using sea surface temperature as a key measurer concludes that there's a critical mean of the year 2057. A date supported in another paper which offers an estimated collapse between 2037 and 2064 with a mean probability of 2050. I'll let you make your own mind up on a specific date for AMOC collapse. But reading all that, one thing seems for sure.

That paper we just mentioned using sea surface temperature as a key measurer concludes that there's a critical mean of the year 2057. A date supported in another paper which offers an estimated collapse between 2037 and 2064 with a mean probability of 2050. I'll let you make your own mind up on a specific date for AMOC collapse. But reading all that, one thing seems for sure.

That paper we just mentioned using sea surface temperature as a key measurer concludes that there's a critical mean of the year 2057. A date supported in another paper which offers an estimated collapse between 2037 and 2064 with a mean probability of 2050. I'll let you make your own mind up on a specific date for AMOC collapse. But reading all that, one thing seems for sure.

If we keep going the way we are with global warming, something pretty intense is going to happen in many of our lifetimes. A full AMOC collapse would be a planetary scale disaster. There's no getting away from that. But if this thing collapses, well, what happens to us? It's not looking good in Europe. Let's start there.

If we keep going the way we are with global warming, something pretty intense is going to happen in many of our lifetimes. A full AMOC collapse would be a planetary scale disaster. There's no getting away from that. But if this thing collapses, well, what happens to us? It's not looking good in Europe. Let's start there.

If we keep going the way we are with global warming, something pretty intense is going to happen in many of our lifetimes. A full AMOC collapse would be a planetary scale disaster. There's no getting away from that. But if this thing collapses, well, what happens to us? It's not looking good in Europe. Let's start there.

European cities would experience a 3 to 10 degree Celsius drop in temperatures in just a few decades. Some areas will be much worse. February months in Norway, for example, could become 35 degrees colder every century. It's not like you'd have a new ice age in just two weeks, but the Northern Atlantic region and Europe in particular will cool substantially.

European cities would experience a 3 to 10 degree Celsius drop in temperatures in just a few decades. Some areas will be much worse. February months in Norway, for example, could become 35 degrees colder every century. It's not like you'd have a new ice age in just two weeks, but the Northern Atlantic region and Europe in particular will cool substantially.

European cities would experience a 3 to 10 degree Celsius drop in temperatures in just a few decades. Some areas will be much worse. February months in Norway, for example, could become 35 degrees colder every century. It's not like you'd have a new ice age in just two weeks, but the Northern Atlantic region and Europe in particular will cool substantially.

England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland would look more like Northern Canada. There'd be a huge increase in winter storms right across Europe and significantly less precipitation in Western Europe. This has a huge knock-on effect to things like agriculture in places like France or even in Great Britain. It'd be a bit like trying to grow potatoes in Northern Norway. It just wouldn't work.

England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland would look more like Northern Canada. There'd be a huge increase in winter storms right across Europe and significantly less precipitation in Western Europe. This has a huge knock-on effect to things like agriculture in places like France or even in Great Britain. It'd be a bit like trying to grow potatoes in Northern Norway. It just wouldn't work.

England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland would look more like Northern Canada. There'd be a huge increase in winter storms right across Europe and significantly less precipitation in Western Europe. This has a huge knock-on effect to things like agriculture in places like France or even in Great Britain. It'd be a bit like trying to grow potatoes in Northern Norway. It just wouldn't work.

However, Europe is not the only region to be affected. The sea level in the Atlantic Ocean could rise as much as 70 centimetres, submerging many coastal cities around the world. There would be densely populated places on Earth right now where people simply could not live. Scientists also predict a shift of the tropical rainfall belt to the south.

However, Europe is not the only region to be affected. The sea level in the Atlantic Ocean could rise as much as 70 centimetres, submerging many coastal cities around the world. There would be densely populated places on Earth right now where people simply could not live. Scientists also predict a shift of the tropical rainfall belt to the south.

However, Europe is not the only region to be affected. The sea level in the Atlantic Ocean could rise as much as 70 centimetres, submerging many coastal cities around the world. There would be densely populated places on Earth right now where people simply could not live. Scientists also predict a shift of the tropical rainfall belt to the south.

This is bad news because the rains move away from the rainforest and go to regions that are not used to so much rainfall. This would mean droughts in some regions and floods in others. Rainfall in the Amazon rainforest would undergo a drastic change. There'd also be less rain in the Sahal and a weakening of the summer monsoon in Asia.

This is bad news because the rains move away from the rainforest and go to regions that are not used to so much rainfall. This would mean droughts in some regions and floods in others. Rainfall in the Amazon rainforest would undergo a drastic change. There'd also be less rain in the Sahal and a weakening of the summer monsoon in Asia.

This is bad news because the rains move away from the rainforest and go to regions that are not used to so much rainfall. This would mean droughts in some regions and floods in others. Rainfall in the Amazon rainforest would undergo a drastic change. There'd also be less rain in the Sahal and a weakening of the summer monsoon in Asia.

As the northern hemisphere cools, the southern hemisphere will become increasingly warmer. The heat from the Pacific Ocean will not be transported to the North Atlantic and instead it ends up staying in the tropics, causing dramatic temperature increases there.