James Thomson

I'm high-value human capital.

But this is the thing about AI, you know, it eventually can come for all of us.

Yeah, he might find himself low-value human capital one day, James.

Perhaps, perhaps.

Well, let's look at the Morgan Stanley maths, and this has been done by a team led by their economist and equity strategist, Chris Nicol.

He says the maths is pretty simple.

If you're a property investor now, you need a drop in house prices of between 15% and 20% for property investment to make sense under the new tax settings that the budget's ushered in.

Okay, so there will be a pent-up demand from owner-occupiers and new builds that offsets that to some extent.

So Nickel comes up with a number that says house prices need to fall by about 5% for the market to sort of reset to what he calls this new equilibrium.

I think that sort of makes sense.

But then you add in the fact that the RBA has pushed through three consecutive interest rate rises.

We'll at least do one more, according to the market, maybe two.

And what we're looking at, Nicole says, is a drop in prices of between 5% and 10%.

Put that in context, Anthony.

Median house price in the last five years?

Yeah.

It's up 53%.

Yeah, okay.

So we can take a drop of 5% to 10%.

In fact, that's what the government is trying to engineer here, if they were brutally honest.