James Woolcock

One culprit may be seasonality.

The suspicion is that the Office for National Statistics is struggling to adjust for shifts in spending habits after the pandemic.

The ONS told Bloomberg it will start publishing non-seasonally adjusted GDP figures next week.

but it means the central bank goes into a potential oil supply shock, doubting if growth really is getting better.

The hope starts in May.

Last year, first quarter GDP came in at 0.7%.

That's a remarkably high figure for Britain's ailing economy, spawning articles about a UK economic turnaround.

Then growth fell to practically zero in the third and fourth quarter, dashing those hopes.

The same pattern has repeated for the last three years, and now both the Bank of England and private forecasters are starting to doubt the data.

One culprit may be seasonality.

The suspicion is that the Office for National Statistics is struggling to adjust for shifts in spending habits after the pandemic.

The ONS told Bloomberg it will start publishing non-seasonally adjusted GDP figures next week.

But it means the central bank goes into a potential oil supply shock, doubting if growth really is getting better.

In London, James Woolcock, Bloomberg Radio.

The hope starts in May.

Last year, first quarter GDP came in at 0.7%.

That's a remarkably high figure for Britain's ailing economy, spawning articles about a UK economic turnaround.

Then growth fell to practically zero in the third and fourth quarter, dashing those hopes.

The same pattern has repeated for the last three years, and now both the Bank of England and private forecasters are starting to doubt the data.

One culprit may be seasonality.