Jared Bernstein

And when I was in the White House, the break-even rate was, you know, 150,000.

Now it's half of that because the immigration impacts and aging boomers are reducing labor supply.

But we still have labor demand weaker than labor supply, and that's why unemployment has been going up.

Now, on the AI point, here's the thing I wanted to say.

Because of exactly what you just said, employers are trying to figure out how many people they can reduce, what kind of their headcount they can reduce because of the work that AI can do, which they're confused about, and they haven't really been able to figure it out.

The worst thing that could happen right now would be a recession with a lot of layoffs.

And the reason is, is that when we've seen—this is an historical observation—

When we've seen technology displacing workers, technology is at its most disemploying when you're in a downturn because employers lay off a big chunk of their workforce.

And the question becomes, how few can I hire back?

Right.

Right now, they're stuck with what they've got, and they don't want to lay a bunch of people off because they just don't know where it's going.

But man, if the demand falls out from this situation, and they're in a situation where they lay off 25% of their workforce, they're going to be thinking, I might just be able to bring back 5%, you know, just a few of those workers and get ahead.

I can answer this question for you.

It's a great question.

So I have an answer to this question.

I have an answer to this question.

First of all, let me say the following, which you would know better than me, but I'll bet I'm right about this.

If you talk to the average economists, I spend two months of the year now at Stanford.

So if you're out, if you're in Silicon Valley, if you talk to a lot of people in the Beltway about AI, they're a lot more excited than the average voter is.

So that's one assertion.