Jared Malsin

So I just think the level of fear and uncertainty and anxiety was just absolutely unimaginable.

So the most important thing to know about this ceasefire is that it is a classic Trump deal in the sense that you have an initial announcement of a deal with many of the details to be worked out later.

So there's a lot of inbuilt fragility to this ceasefire arrangement and a lot that can still go wrong.

So the Strait of Hormuz is a great example, and it's also potentially the most salient issue, obviously, because of the massive historic disruption to the world oil supply and the rising gas prices and inflation globally and so on.

The Americans want the Strait to be opened unconditionally.

They want to return to the status quo prior to the war.

That's also, importantly, what the Gulf countries want.

And the Iranians show no indication of going back to that previous status quo.

They want to maintain control.

They said in their statements that ships that cross now during this interim two-week period have to do so in coordination with their armed forces.

We understand from our reporting that means in coordination with the IRGC specifically.

And so there's a lot to be figured out here.

Will the Americans accept that?

Will industry accept it?

You know, talking to people in the shipping and oil industries today, what I understand is that there might be a scenario down the line where there's an imperative to move the oil and to get these tankers out of there, where they might be willing to work with the Iranians under some circumstances.

But there's a lot that would have to be figured out, right?

Because...

How do you pay a fee to a government that is heavily sanctioned, that has no access to the international financial system?

We understand that that might be done through cryptocurrency or the payments might be done in Chinese yuan, for example.

But how all of that exactly would work?