Jason Helfstein

So I think it was it went from, OK, you have a whole lot of cash.

You're going to spend a good chunk of that.

And like half your free, you know, half your free cash flow to the like you're going to basically spend all of your free cash flow.

and dig into your cash reserves pretty significantly for something that we won't necessarily see the payoff for two years plus.

Amazon, we're still outperform.

We did take our price target down.

That was mostly like, you know, our current price target on the stock right now is 260 and, you know, kind of, you know, under $200.

That's kind of plenty of upside.

Yeah, it's kind of unrelated.

I guess what else what I'll say is yes, like, so when you add the higher capex, you have to depreciate it, right?

So you're like, okay, we're gonna spend $200 billion next year, that 200 billion, let's say you have to take a sixth of that your expenses every year.

for six years.

So that depresses your margins until you start to see the positive revenue from that.

But that revenue doesn't show up for, you know, they would say 18 to 36 months.

I would like to like think of more of 18 to 24.

But the point is that is like far in the future of when investors like to go, Hey, what's the company worth on next year's earnings, right?

You have to start to say like, well, what's it worth on 27 or 20, 28?

to factor that in so that's really what it is and i'll say like when i look at where the street estimates came or came out this morning as far as the institutional analysts you know they're looking for something like 20 percent aws growth the next two years we're at 30 percent right and like to me this is just math like you go this is how much you're spending this is how many gigawatts you get this is the revenue per gigawatt yeah like the price the you know the

the pricing could get weaker as the market gets more competitive but like within a range you get the numbers and it's almost like the the the analysts are just struggling to like they're afraid of letting their numbers go up and then the the the buy side the institutional buyers are like hey like we generally have agreed with these like kind of spending cycles but like what you guys don't agree with us so listen i think this is the kind of thing where everyone's gonna look at everybody's numbers over the next few weeks and be like wait a second

If there are folks that are kind of comfortable and my clients are saying, yeah, if they spend $200 billion, why wouldn't they grow 30%?