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Jason Lemkin

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
3062 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

And this actually ties, funnily enough, to the ads come and everything else.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

The key question that I don't know is, how will the investors look at it?

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

If you're writing a check right now, do you think, if I'm paying $600 billion pre or $800 billion pre, do I need to say it could be a trillion?

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

Because it could be 20% dilution.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

I don't know.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

But this isn't existential to Harry's point.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

In the end, you can fold and give the man what he wants.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

You can't settle if he doesn't want to settle.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

I mean, to be fair, you don't have to.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

I mean, because as I think about it as an investor, what would you say?

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

You'd say here, let's just say this is around at 700 million pre.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

There is a probability of an additional 15% dilution, but it's not 100%.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

Maybe it's only 10%.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

So really risk-adjusted, you add a 1.5%.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

So you don't assume.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

You're assigning a probability to a capped, large, and uncertain event, which is there is some chance that I take 15% or 20% extra dilution, but it's not 100%.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

So it doesn't drag the financing down to zero.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

It merely means there's an asterisk risk on it.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

And to be fair, anyone who's financed open AI today, if you look, the funny thing about open AI is it has, even though this looks very risky, open AI from a structure perspective

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

It's less risky now than it's ever been.