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Jason Lemkin

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
3697 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

But in the end, over the long term, markets have to tend to rational equilibrium, which means as you take less risk, you get less return.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

There can't be bad stages.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

I've heard this for 30 years.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

Oh, X stage is really bad.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

Y stage is really good.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

It doesn't make sense, right?

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

In the medium term, you have to assume that as you go down the risk curve, which is what stage is, going down the risk curve, you slightly go down the return curve.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

There are interim anomalies at various points in time.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

You're exactly right.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

It's like, oh, you're anecdotally, oh my god, series Bs are really hard now, blah, blah, blah.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

But you're building a firm over an extended period of time.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

You've got to be cognizant of where the market is at any point in time, but saying,

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

It's very hard to say, I'm doing serious A's and B's.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

I'm getting 10% to 20% ownership.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

Oh, I'm going to wake up this morning, and that whole sector is, quote, bad.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

What does that mean?

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

It's just a weird comment.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

It means risk-adjusted.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

My dollars are better suited elsewhere.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Sam Altman vs Elon Musk: The $100BN Battle | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Market Pricing Today? | ClickHouse and Replit's New Rounds: Analysed

And if you believe that disequilibrium is going to persist longer than, you know,