Jason Ware

And let's be honest, like obviously some of the cuts that have been taken out of the market are predicated on this idea that this is going to be somewhat more inflationary and therefore the Fed's going to have a harder time moving.

But I still see the same setup that I saw three or four months ago when we spoke, which is

I think, you know, Warsh is obviously going to be the next Fed chair.

I think he's going to have no problem getting confirmed.

Obviously, there's some potential roadblocks there with this whole DOG investigation with Powell.

But I think that's a distraction.

That's noise.

Warsh is going to be our next Fed chair.

And I think Kevin is a hawk at heart.

And given what's happening in the Middle East, given what oil prices are, even if we reopen the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow and the war ends tomorrow,

It's not a light switch.

I think we're probably looking at higher oil over the next few months than we were prior to the war, which was 60-something dollars a barrel.

And so I think the Fed's going to be a little bit more patient on seeing how maybe $80 oil, being the new normal for a little while, is going to flow through to the inflation calculus.

And given Kevin's more hawkish predisposition, I think the Fed's going to be

pausing for a little bit here.

I don't see them coming in.

I don't see wars coming in and cutting immediately.

We had a good jobs report last month, you know, 168,000 jobs or somewhere around there.

And so I think this natural tension between what's happening in the labor market, what's happening with inflation puts the Fed on hold for the foreseeable future.

And so I still think we're looking at zero to maybe one cut at the end of the year.