Jason Ware

We had a flash bear market down 21% over three weeks.

So, um,

I think at this point, the market is pretty comfortable with the idea that Trump has largely moved on from his worst intuitions around tariffs.

We're going to have to live with higher tariffs while Trump's in office.

We may even have to live with higher tariffs after Trump leaves office.

But I think what we've learned as investors, or at least we should have learned as investors, is that the markets adjust, right?

We went into Trump's second term with an effective tariff rate of like 3% here in the US.

It's now, depending on who you look at, like which model, it's between 12 and 15%.

If Trump had applied his Liberation Day tariff, so it would have been like 40%.

And that's why the market so violently responded to those with recession fears and a bear market, like I said, a quick bear market.

If we end up down the path, whether Trump can reconstitute that to 18% or whether it ends up being 10, 11, 12, which is where I think the consensus on the street is, I don't think that is enough to slow the economy in a way that's going to be meaningful to the stock market.

And it's certainly not enough to impact the trajectory of corporate earnings, which is up and to the right.

And so I just don't think it really matters unless he comes out with something really crazy from left field where all of a sudden he tries to, like, you know, we know what the Supreme Court has said about IEPA.

He's trying to reconstitute.

Let's say he gets, you know, a you-know-what up his you-know-what and tries to reconstitute those in a way where we're looking at 20%, 25%, 30% tariffs.

Then I think the market's going to care.

But I don't see a credible path to that.

I don't see him wanting to do that.

I think the issue in his mind is sort of like he's dealing with the tail, but largely we've moved on to other things like war in the Middle East.

Energy prices.