Jason Zweig

And I guess there's two ways to think about it.

One is that

There are great companies like Nvidia, Google, Meta, you know, Facebook, that are planning to pour trillions of dollars of investment into AI.

And the people who run these companies are far from stupid.

And the track record of these companies is pretty phenomenal.

So that's definitely a positive.

What is a lot less positive is

is there's decades of very rigorous financial research showing that when companies invest a lot of money, they tend to have lower future returns.

Seems counterintuitive, but I believe you.

Yeah, a lot of capital expenditure tends to be wasted.

So when companies overinvest in new technology,

the track record tends to be very mixed.

That's really the key thing here is that

You can be right about how the future will unfold, but if you pay too much for the promise of that future, you're not really going to make any money doing it.

If you think back to...

the tech bubble, and of course, a lot of our listeners might not have suffered through it the way I did.

But, you know, internet-related stocks lost roughly 85% on average between 2000 and 2002.

I mean, it's one of the worst destructions of wealth in American history.

Jeepers.

So if you bought internet stocks then, dot-com stocks, you lost almost all your money.