Jason Zweig

Seems counterintuitive, but I believe you.

Yeah, a lot of capital expenditure tends to be wasted.

So when companies overinvest in new technology,

the track record tends to be very mixed.

That's really the key thing here is that

You can be right about how the future will unfold, but if you pay too much for the promise of that future, you're not really going to make any money doing it.

If you think back to...

the tech bubble, and of course, a lot of our listeners might not have suffered through it the way I did.

But, you know, internet-related stocks lost roughly 85% on average between 2000 and 2002.

I mean, it's one of the worst destructions of wealth in American history.

Jeepers.

So if you bought internet stocks then, dot-com stocks, you lost almost all your money.

If you bought the market as a whole,

you certainly didn't do well.

You lost about roughly 45% over that three-year period.

But then the stock market came roaring back.

And what I find interesting is if you subtracted the so-called Magnificent Seven, the biggest tech stocks in the country, from last year's 17.9% return, U.S.

stocks were still up about 10%.

So the non-AI stocks

gained more than 10%, which is almost exactly their long-term average return.