Jay Hoag

So I'm not saying it's easy to build consumer businesses, but I think the fundamental reason why

so many people are not focused on it is because of money chases momentum or follows perceived momentum at the risk of insult, possibly like seven-year-olds playing soccer.

The ball goes over there and everybody goes over there.

And so I think as far as SaaS and AI, it's super shiny, super interesting.

That's where everybody's focused.

And I just have a hard time believing there are not going to be any new consumer internet businesses founded and built over the next 10 or 20 years.

Many super interesting technologies have taken place.

far longer to reach commercial scale from a revenue and monetization standpoint than predicted would be examples of recent vintage and autonomous vehicles where the pure technologists said it was ready for prime time five, seven years ago, now appears to just be that.

AR and VR, generally great opportunity set, but still really looking for commercialization.

To me, that's the lesson to keep in mind that it's the applicability of technology, not just the availability of it.

And when I get into defensibility, what is an monetization model?

How big and defensible can it be?

How can you build an enduring franchise, not just have the hot tool of the day?

As a technology investor, technologists, and sometimes it feeds into technology investors, there is a...

Often overestimating the near term on your way to underestimating the long term.

And that's just something to be careful of.

And the other thing I think we talked about last time, I was going back through any of the most valuable tech companies in the world today.

Are they exceptions to this statement?

I don't think they are.

Every area and every great company goes through a desert of disillusionment in investors' minds where it was great, and then all of a sudden, people are casting dispersions on the sustainability of it.