Jeff Park
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
So it's a clean year, which I love.
And you can actually kind of see that already in the options market.
can see it because right after December 31st, you saw the call skew finally steepen after basically three months of having shown no activity.
When call skew steepens, what that means is that investors are either buying upside calls freshly to bring vol bid back up, or on the other side, investors are not selling calls to suppress volatility on the upside.
And so one of the big thesis I had was
3Q, 3, 4, 4Q was really dominated by a lot of cover call selling activities, which is why Bitcoin never got the chance to really squeeze to the upside.
And for now, six days into the new year, we are seeing renewed activity to the upside.
We saw lots of call buying yesterday, which is really exciting.
Love seeing the green blocks come through for upside.
And then we also saw people just buying very outsized, far out of the money strangles.
Strangles are when you buy calls
and puts that are both out of the money.
So it's not making a directional bet.
It's making a bet on volatility itself.
And this investor is basically saying whether it goes up or down, volatility is going to be higher for 2026.
And I think that is the key message for not just Bitcoin, but for generally risk assets globally heading into a really exciting year.
I think volatility in general for upside and downside is healthy for Bitcoin.
And I know people don't like it when Bitcoin goes down and vol goes up because they think that is net value destructive for your bags.
But the reality is anytime there's volatility, even to the downside means there's uncertainty.
And the flip side of uncertainty is always opportunity.