Jeff Park
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And it's a clean board for everyone to start building new positions to anticipate three months, six months, one year from now.
So that's great because there's no inertia and gravity that is counteracting pre-existing positions that people might have had that season throughout 2025.
And what I've been sharing with investors is that 2025 was really marked by a bunch of covered call selling activities.
So if you were coming in 2025 in January and February and you were selling calls expiring in June, September, December, because you were really excited about Bitcoin momentum post-Trump,
All of those calls you had sold were in existence for the year, and they were creating different kinds of liquidity black holes, if you would.
Those are all gone.
So it's a clean year, which I love.
And you can actually kind of see that already in the options market.
can see it because right after December 31st, you saw the call skew finally steepen after basically three months of having shown no activity.
When call skew steepens, what that means is that investors are either buying upside calls freshly to bring vol bid back up, or on the other side, investors are not selling calls to suppress volatility on the upside.
And so one of the big thesis I had was
3Q, 3, 4, 4Q was really dominated by a lot of cover call selling activities, which is why Bitcoin never got the chance to really squeeze to the upside.
And for now, six days into the new year, we are seeing renewed activity to the upside.
We saw lots of call buying yesterday, which is really exciting.
Love seeing the green blocks come through for upside.
And then we also saw people just buying very outsized, far out of the money strangles.
Strangles are when you buy calls
and puts that are both out of the money.
So it's not making a directional bet.
It's making a bet on volatility itself.